So, Will it Storm? - Understanding Public Knowledge and Interpretation of Extended Range Severe Weather Forecasts

In 2007, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) introduced a suite of extended-range severe weather products focused on highlighting potential severe weather areas in the three to seven day period. This product, named the Day 4-8 Outlook, denotes regions in the United States that can expect a 15% or 30% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point on a given day in the forecast period. Past studies have identified that several days before severe weather events, members of the public are most interested in information related to chance and location, both of which are currently displayed in the 4-8 day outlook product. However, less is known about how members of the public interpret extended-range severe weather forecasts, and what (if any) value is generated from these forecasts. To address this gap in the literature, we asked participants in the 2024 Severe Weather and Society Survey several questions about their perceptions, awareness, and perceived utility of extended-range severe weather information as presented in the day 4-8 outlook. We will describe the results from this survey, in particular highlighting demographic differences of public use of these extended-range outlooks. Additional analyses will show how risk perceptions and likelihood of protective action change based on (1) the severity of expected severe weather and (2) how many days away a severe weather event is. Through this analysis, we can begin identifying how participants interpret this product, and if extended-range severe weather information holds any value and/or utility to them.