A Framework for Integrating Decision-Making and Societal Outcomes: Beyond Risk Communication

How should the weather enterprise view the relationships among weather products and services and outcomes like reducing risk of death? And how can social scientists map these relationships as a system of processes to better inform research strategies in weather and climate-related social science? Historically, the approach to answering these questions has focused on risk communication and protective action. While necessary concepts, these are not sufficient to map the larger system of processes involved. Further, common frameworks tend to conceptually compress decision-making into one occurrence, when evidence shows that people make a series of qualitatively different, context-dependent decisions when faced with particular hazards. To fill this gap, we present a general framework to integrate work by cognitive scientists, risk communication scientists, psychologists, economists, sociologists, and others interested in how weather information ultimately affects decisions individuals make to reduce risks. The framework has three important aspects. One aspect focuses on linking outcomes--e.g., loss of life, at-risk behavior--to the series of decisions that lead to them. The second aspect focuses on the decision-making process--e.g., what reasons and context led a person to drive into a flooded road--to uncover possible points of intervention for reducing risk. The third aspect focuses on how decision-making instances are crucial in determining whether or not weather information improves outcomes. We show how this framework aligns directly with the National Weather Service mission, and consider its implications for advancing the research programs of the weather enterprise to protect life and property and enhance the economy.