Sheltering the Storm: Sheltering Behavior During the December 9, 2023 Middle Tennessee Tornado Outbreak

On Saturday afternoon, December 9, 2023 a deadly tornado outbreak hit Middle Tennessee including seven tornadoes ranging from EF-1 to EF-3. The Clarksville and Nashville metro areas were hard-hit, resulting in seven fatalities and nearly 100 injuries. The fatalities all occurred in residential areas, primarily in mobile homes, in counties with moderate to high social vulnerability. In the following weeks, a quick response survey was sent out to better understand how multiple factors – warning sources and channels, environmental cues, fear, coping capacity, socioeconomic vulnerability, demographics – interact to influence the quality of tornado preparedness and sheltering by different segments of the public. A total of 800 surveys were collected online using Qualtrics survey software after the event. Over half of the sample was purchased using an online panel of residents within the impacted metro areas to ensure a sufficient survey response from African American and Latinx/Hispanic populations. The remaining sample was collected in partnership with NWS Nashville, who posted a survey link on their Facebook and Twitter accounts, inviting those impacted by the outbreak to complete a public response survey.

Results show 87% of respondents were aware of the possibility of severe weather beforehand, with 65% being moderately to extremely concerned. About 90% of respondents said they received either a tornado and/or severe thunderstorm warning leading up to the event. Respondents indicated the information sources and channels used both before and during the event, with national news/weather companies, NWS, and local news ranking highest for sources, while social media and smart phone apps were the highest ranked channels used. A high rate of sheltering was observed, with 76% of respondents taking shelter. The survey asked respondents about the quality of their sheltering, and influencing factors for their sheltering decision such as such as warnings, environmental factors such as intensity and proximity, social factors such as previous experience, and situational factors such as time of day, location and ability to find shelter. Of those who took shelter, 59% said they sheltered away from windows, 34% said they protected their head and body, while 15% said they went under a sturdy object. Most respondents (64%) who took shelter did so within 15 minutes of receiving a warning, while 31% took shelter between 15-30+ minutes after the warning.

This study is part of a NOAA Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (SBES) grant awarded to the University of Massachusetts to develop Quick Response Surveys soon after tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, and winter weather events occur. Our goal is to create a scientifically rigorous and operationally feasible survey system for NWS Weather Forecast Offices to collect data on human perception and response following severe weather events. The surveys collect empirical data focusing on the period from hazard awareness through potential protective actions. The grant has piloted a survey system enabling individual Weather Forecast Offices to disseminate event-specific on-line surveys 1- 30 days after an event occurs. By using consistent questions and methodological approach, these surveys are intended to form the basis of a multi-year, cross-sectional database for NOAA.