The Economy and Flood Vulnerability of New Hampshire’s Coastal Towns

The ocean (i.e., marine) economy encompasses sectors that depend on the oceans and Great Lakes, including (but not limited to) living resources, marine construction, marine transportation, offshore mineral resources, ship and boat building, and tourism and recreation. In 2022, the marine economy accounted for $476.2 billion of all U.S. gross domestic product and employed over two million people. Meanwhile, nearly 40 percent of all US residents live along the coast. The magnitude of the ocean economy and the number of people living near the coast highlight the need for research that informs coastal decision-making and promotes coastal community resilience.

This case study attempts to address this need by coupling proprietary economic data with environmental information services (e.g., NOAA sea level rise layers) to assess three coastal towns in New Hampshire: Hampton, Hampton Falls, and Seabrook. The study establishes a baseline of business establishments and jobs by industry and ocean economy sector, evaluates their vulnerability to sea-level rise and storm surge, and estimates potential tax revenue loss for residential properties.

Results indicate that ocean economy businesses account for approximately 12% of establishments and 15% of jobs across the towns, with tourism and recreation playing a significant role. At three feet of sea-level rise, the number of potentially affected businesses rises from seven to 77 (11 of which are marine-dependent). This increases to 255 business and 1,780 jobs when coupled with storm surge from a major event. Additionally, 3,090 residential properties (16 percent of those analyzed) may be affected by three feet of sea level rise. While further analysis is needed to validate these results, the findings can promote community resilience and sustainable economic development by way of evidence-based coastal management plans and community preparedness initiatives. Moreover, this case study provides a blueprint for other coastal communities seeking local data to support informed decision-making.