Evaluation of the MPAS Model in Forecasting Cyclone AKARÁ Using SCANTEC

On February 15, 2024, Cyclone Akará formed near the coast of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), drawing the attention of the meteorological community as it was classified by some agencies as a tropical cyclone, something rare in the South Atlantic region. The phenomenon did not cause damage to the Brazilian coast and moved southward over the ocean, lasting approximately one week and dissipating on February 23. Several numerical weather prediction models, operated by research centers around the world, anticipated the development of Cyclone Akará.

This study aims to evaluate the forecasts of the MPAS-A model for Cyclone Akará, comparing them with ERA5 reanalysis data for the same period, using the Community System for the Evaluation of Numerical Weather and Climate Forecast Models (SCANTEC). SCANTEC is a community-developed software by INPE that offers robust, efficient, and impartial statistical intercomparison of different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.

Although Cyclone Akará is an extreme event, making it ambitious to expect high performance from the models, this type of study becomes particularly important with the development of the MONAN model (Model for Ocean-laNd-Atmosphere predictioN), which adopts MPAS-A as the dynamic core of its atmospheric component. This model has been developed collaboratively by various research institutions in South America, aiming to provide an integrated representation of the different components of the Earth system across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The results obtained in this research may guide the evolution of this model in predicting extreme events.