24STUDENT 21st Century Climate Projections for China: High-Resolution Insights from a Newly Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Downscaled Dataset

Accurate climate projections are critical for various applications and impact assessments in environmental science and management. This study presents HiCPC (High-resolution CMIP6 downscaled daily Climate Projections over China), a new dataset tailored to China's specific needs (https://doi.org/10.11888/Atmos.tpdc.301122). HiCPC leverages outputs from 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). An advanced Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method is employed, using the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) as a reference. HiCPC offers detailed daily precipitation and temperature data across China at an enhanced spatial resolution of 0.1°×0.1°. It covers both the historical period (1979-2014) and future projections (2015-2100) based on four CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Upon validation, HiCPC demonstrates exceptional performance, surpassing CMIP6 GCMs and NEX-CDDP-CMIP6 across the historical period. This reinforces its significance for essential research in climate change evaluation and its associated implications within China.

Based on the insights revealed by HiCPC, it is demonstrated that regions sensitive to future precipitation increases in China this century are those with lower precipitation levels; similarly, areas sensitive to temperature rises are those with lower temperatures. The variation in extreme precipitation changes in China's future is significant. In regions with less precipitation, there will be a greater increase in extreme precipitation events. In areas with lower temperatures, there will be a more substantial increase in extreme precipitation. Additionally, regions experiencing greater temperature increases will also witness more significant increases in extreme precipitation events.