How are Michigan Communities Preparing for Their Climate Future? Outcomes of a Document Analysis of Municipal and County Plans for Climate Change, Risks, and Priorities

As the effects of climate change become more prevalent in our day-to-day lives, so too does the reality that not everyone is prepared for its impacts. While regional climate impact assessments for the upper Midwestern U.S. highlight the risks and vulnerabilities that communities may face including but not limited to more annual precipitation, more frequent heavy precipitation events, and an increase in average temperature, the information is not always incorporated into community planning documents. This represents a potentially critical gap between vulnerability and awareness; these documents (such as Master Plans, Self-Assessments, and Zoning Codes) guide how communities plan for infrastructure and investments on a multi-year time frame, and in Michigan, there has not been a published systematic analysis of how communities are recognizing and addressing their vulnerabilities across the state. This study explores relationships between community demographics and their recognition of and plans for climate change, as reflected in their planning documents. We conducted a search for documents from all counties, cities, villages, and charter townships in MI and recorded the type of document (e.g., Master Plan, Zoning Code), date of publication, and whether it was in draft or final form. If the document was published or updated between 2015 and June 2024, we used it in our analysis of content and themes. We structured the thematic analysis to focus on the intersections of the predicted regional impacts of climate change and what communities might prioritize (e.g., protecting vulnerable community members from extreme heat) and used community geography and demographics to identify clusters of similar communities for statistical analysis. Preliminary results indicate that poorer and more rural communities are potentially less prepared to address their climate change vulnerability; as median household income and population density decreased, it was far more frequent that a community’s planning documents were a decade or more out of date (drafted, revised, or approved prior to 2014) or did not contain language that recognized the role of climate change in altering future risk. These results highlight disparities that are likely not only experienced in Michigan, but in all 50 states, showing the need for a call to action across state and local governments to ensure that all communities, especially the most vulnerable, are prepared to continue to adapt and plan for climate change resilience.