Session 9B El Niño Southern Oscillation: Dynamics, Prediction and Projection I

Wednesday, 15 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
243 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 38th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs:

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical Pacific at interannual timescales. Given its large-scale influence and global impacts, understanding, predicting and projecting ENSO and potential changes in ENSO is of great societal relevance. ENSO events are the result of complex ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, mediated by influences from the extra-tropical Pacific as well as Atlantic and Indian Oceans which may be stochastic in nature. As a result, ENSO events are very diverse in their initiation, development, demise, and spatial patterns, posing great challenges to our ability to predict them. Climate change is also expected to alter ENSO characteristics and the associated local and remote impacts. This session invites contributions that explore all aspects of ENSO, including its dynamics, diversity, predictability and prediction, teleconnections, impacts, and future projections from observational, theoretical and modeling perspectives. Contributions that examine the role of inter-basin interactions on ENSO development and diversity are also welcome.

Papers:
8:30 AM
9B.1
8:45 AM
9B.2
The Recharge Oscillator Model of ENSO Revisited: Incorporating the Spatial Structure of Wind Stress Anomalies (Invited Presentation)
Alexey Fedorov, Yale University, New Haven, CT; LOCEAN/Sorbonne University, Paris, France; and J. Stuivenvolt-Allen

9:15 AM
9B.4
Impacts of precipitation anomaly on the ENSO development
Takahito Kataoka, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, 14, Japan; and M. Watanabe, T. Suzuki, H. Tatebe, F. jin, and H. Bellenger

9:30 AM
9B.5
Ocean salinity feedback amplifies extreme El Niño
Shizuo Liu, Duke University, Durham, NC; and S. Hu

9:45 AM
9B.6
Multidecadal Climate and ENSO’s Seasonal Transitions: The Role of the ENSO Transition Mode
Shikhar Srivastava, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, KA, India; and A. Chakraborty and R. G. Murtugudde

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