Session 1A Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction I

Monday, 13 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
243 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 38th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Submitters:
Cochairs:

Multiyear to decadal climate variability is a fundamental aspect of the global climate system. Major international efforts are underway to provide predictions that can help decision-maker planning for the next several years to decades, but the key mechanisms driving such long-term variations, and the differing sources of predictability on multiyear vs. decadal timescales, are still not fully understood. Processes both within ocean basins and inter-basin interactions are considered important at these timescales, but to-date the magnitude of these influences remains unknown, as is the impact of atmospheric/terrestrial processes. Separation of natural decadal variability from externally-forced components is also critical but challenging. This session invites contributions examining mechanisms of internal multiyear to decadal variability in the oceans, land, and/or atmosphere, studies attempting to isolate the internal and anthropogenically forced components and their interactions in observational and model datasets, and related prediction efforts using empirical/machine learning, theoretical and modeling approaches.

Papers:
8:30 AM
1A.1
Asymmetries between Phases of Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability in the CMIP6 Multi Models
Dong Eun Lee, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South korea; and H. Baek, Y. H. Kim, Y. G. Park, M. Ting, and Y. Kushnir

8:45 AM
1A.2
9:00 AM
1A.3
Improved Homogenisation of Observations Shows Steadier and Faster Historical Global Warming
Duo Chan, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hempshire, United Kingdom; and G. Gebbie, P. Huybers, and E. Kent

9:15 AM
1A.4
The Climate Irreversibility and Regional Characteristics in the Next Fifty Years
Qi Ge, Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA; and Y. Wang and J. H. Jiang

9:30 AM
1A.5
9:45 AM
1A.6
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner