Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction

Monday, 13 January 2025: 3:00 PM-4:30 PM
Hall C (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 38th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs:

Multiyear to decadal climate variability is a fundamental aspect of the global climate system. Major international efforts are underway to provide predictions that can help decision-maker planning for the next several years to decades, but the key mechanisms driving such long-term variations, and the differing sources of predictability on multiyear vs. decadal timescales, are still not fully understood. Processes both within ocean basins and inter-basin interactions are considered important at these timescales, but to-date the magnitude of these influences remains unknown, as is the impact of atmospheric/terrestrial processes. Separation of natural decadal variability from externally-forced components is also critical but challenging. This session invites contributions examining mechanisms of internal multiyear to decadal variability in the oceans, land, and/or atmosphere, studies attempting to isolate the internal and anthropogenically forced components and their interactions in observational and model datasets, and related prediction efforts using empirical/machine learning, theoretical and modeling approaches.

Papers:
29
30
Assessing Spatial Patterns and Trends in the Sea Level Annual Cycle
Asha C Spencer, NOAA, Princeton, NJ; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Steinberg

31
Internal Variability as Drivers of Compound Events in a Large Ensemble
Ashley Dwyer, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and J. W. Hurrell

32
Clustering as a Tool for Understanding Ocean Regions of Sea Level Covariability and Volume Redistribution
Theo Avila, PCHES, Los Angeles, CA; and J. M. Steinberg, J. E. Tesdal, and J. P. Krasting

33
Explaining fluctuations in the period of the quasi-biennial oscillation
Young-Ha Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

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