Monday, 13 January 2025: 1:45 PM-3:00 PM
244 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 38th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs:
Youngji Joh; Leo Siqueira; Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, University at Albany, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Albany, NY and Abigail Lynn Segal Swann, University of Washington
This session explores cutting-edge advancements in Earth System Modeling, aiming to enhance our understanding of climate dynamics and improve predictive capabilities. The session invites discussions on simulating complex interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and biosphere and aims to discuss ongoing efforts and needed advances in fundamental research on Earth System Models. This session welcomes a wide range of topics including, but not limited to, advancements in physical process representation, biogeochemical process coupling, high-resolution modeling, data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, model intercomparison and evaluation, and future challenges and opportunities of Earth System Models.
The trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions controls the extent of climate change over the coming decades and centuries. Earth system models (ESMs) that predict the evolution of global climate have traditionally used assumed concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gasses as boundary forcing. This approach, however, neglects critical feedbacks that influence the rate at which natural systems can take up and store atmospheric carbon. A more comprehensive approach is to use greenhouse gas emissions to force ESMs, which requires explicitly simulating feedbacks among the atmosphere, land, and oceans. These feedbacks are critically important as the trajectory of emissions evolves over the coming decades and as natural carbon solutions – including human actions to enhance ocean carbon uptake or land carbon storage – are pursued to limit warming. In this session, we discuss climate variability and change in emissions-driven ESMs as well as comparison between ESMs and simpler climate models, and discuss future simulation needs to provide actionable climate predictions.
- Joh, Youngji (youngji.joh@noaa.gov)
- Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
- Joh, Youngji (youngji.joh@noaa.gov)
- Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
- Siqueira, Leo (lsiqueira@miami.edu)
- , Cary, NC USA
- Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen (gkeppela@umich.edu)
- University of Michigan, ann arbor, MI USA
- Swann, Abigail Lynn Segal (aswann@uw.edu)
- , Seattle, WA USA
- 449901 Value added of regionally refined earth system models in simulation of extreme wind events
- 450335 What are the benefits of km-scale global climate model simulations for predicting extratropical cyclones extreme winds?
- 449502 Quantifying the impact of the convective wind gust parameter on land model estimates of the surface energy balance at kilometer scales that resolve convective gusts
- 458006 Online Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Feedback Control for E3SM
- 456077 Changes to the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and cold point tropopause in perturbed-climate global storm-resolving model simulations
3B Winter Weather in a Warming World II (70657)
Climate Variability and Change exert powerful effects on global circulation, moisture availability, and the evolution of weather systems. In 2022-3 we have seen the impacts that winter weather can have, such as through the persistence of high-impact snowfall in California, where snow totals have broken records. There is high confidence that climate change is contributing to warmer temperatures, heavy precipitation extremes, drought, and heatwaves. There is less confidence in the effects of climate change on winter weather and its extremes. In recent years, research has focused on understanding how cold air outbreaks may be related to changes in high latitude and stratospheric circulation, and to characterize trends in winter weather severity and frequency in a warming world. There are also questions to be explored in the relationship between winter weather, cold waves, and natural variability; the role of both variability and climate change in future winter weather events; changes in winter storm evolutions, such as their intensity, phase type, and durations; and the ability of global and regional models to adequately simulate cool season dynamics, thermodynamics, and planetary circulations. This session aims to explore a broad array of questions related to these and other research areas that examine cool season phenomena, including both core science research, as well as impacts to society, ecosystems, health, and infrastructure. In 2023, we ran the first session in this topic area which was well received, suggesting that there is much more to be explored in this subject area.
- Joh, Youngji (youngji.joh@noaa.gov)
- Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
- Mullens, Esther D. (emullens@ufl.edu)
- University of Florida, Gainesville, FL USA
- Furtado, Jason C. (jfurtado@ou.edu)
- Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK USA
- 456383 A 21st century shift in the mechanisms of the early-winter United States snowfall variability
- 449626 Examining Lake-Effect Changes Across the Great Lakes in a Warming World Utilizing Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations
- 452874 Assessing Extreme Snowfall Trends in the White Mountains of New Hampshire Using KMWN Data and CMIP6 Simulations
- 457305 The Pacific Arctic as an Emerging “Hot Spot” in the Changing Polar Climate
- 455630 The Impact of Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss on Large-Scale Patterns of Atmospheric Variability in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project
Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to the Public (69302)
To educate and communicate the increasing risks posed by a changing climate to stakeholders, decision-makers, and the public, there are several methods of engagement that can be used. Firstly, engaging with stakeholders is critical to ensure that they have a deep understanding of the risks and are more likely to take action. This can be achieved through various methods such as consultations, focus groups, and workshops. Secondly, using clear and concise language and providing context is important to help people understand the implications of the risks posed by climate change. Thirdly, using different media and communication channels such as social media, data visualization, storytelling, and immersive experiences can enhance engagement with the information and reach a wider audience. Finally, collaborating with community-based organizations and citizen science projects can also be a successful approach to educate and communicate the risks of climate change to the public. Climate services should work to build trust with the general public by being transparent, honest, and accountable. This can involve acknowledging uncertainties and limitations in the science and being open to feedback and criticism. These methods of engagement can help to ensure that the risks posed by climate change are communicated effectively and reach a wider audience.
- Labe, Zachary Michael (zachary.labe@noaa.gov)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
- Cyccone, Jerry M (cyccone@ucar.edu)
- NCAR, Boulder, CO USA
- Labe, Zachary Michael (zachary.labe@noaa.gov)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
- Cyccone, Jerry M (cyccone@ucar.edu)
- NCAR, Boulder, CO USA
- 457922 Heat Squad: Supporting the Media to Connect Climate Change to the 2024 Extreme Heat Events
Multiyear to Decadal Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability and Prediction (70652)
Multiyear to decadal climate variability is a fundamental aspect of the global climate system. Major international efforts are underway to provide predictions that can help decision-maker planning for the next several years to decades, but the key mechanisms driving such long-term variations, and the differing sources of predictability on multiyear vs. decadal timescales, are still not fully understood. Processes both within ocean basins and inter-basin interactions are considered important at these timescales, but to-date the magnitude of these influences remains unknown, as is the impact of atmospheric/terrestrial processes. Separation of natural decadal variability from externally-forced components is also critical but challenging. This session invites contributions examining mechanisms of internal multiyear to decadal variability in the oceans, land, and/or atmosphere, studies attempting to isolate the internal and anthropogenically forced components and their interactions in observational and model datasets, and related prediction efforts using empirical/machine learning, theoretical and modeling approaches.
- Joh, Youngji (youngji.joh@noaa.gov)
- Princeton University, Princeton, NJ<
Papers:1:45 PM3A.1
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
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- Princeton University, Princeton, NJ<