Session 13B El Niño Southern Oscillation: Dynamics, Prediction and Projection II

Thursday, 16 January 2025: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM
243 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 38th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs:

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical Pacific at interannual timescales. Given its large-scale influence and global impacts, understanding, predicting and projecting ENSO and potential changes in ENSO is of great societal relevance. ENSO events are the result of complex ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, mediated by influences from the extra-tropical Pacific as well as Atlantic and Indian Oceans which may be stochastic in nature. As a result, ENSO events are very diverse in their initiation, development, demise, and spatial patterns, posing great challenges to our ability to predict them. Climate change is also expected to alter ENSO characteristics and the associated local and remote impacts. This session invites contributions that explore all aspects of ENSO, including its dynamics, diversity, predictability and prediction, teleconnections, impacts, and future projections from observational, theoretical and modeling perspectives. Contributions that examine the role of inter-basin interactions on ENSO development and diversity are also welcome.

Papers:
8:30 AM
13B.1
An Advanced Framework for Disentangling Deterministic Dynamics and Stochastic Processes in ENSO Predictability (Invited Presentation)
Cait Martinez, University of Miami, Miami, FL; University of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman and S. Larson

9:00 AM
13B.3
Effects of Extreme La Niña Events on the Asymmetry of ENSO Impacts
Robert White Payne Jr., North Carolina State University, Cary, NC; NC State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Larson and E. J. Becker

9:15 AM
13B.4
Investigating the Impact of Climate Variability and Change on the California Current System Using a Pacific Pacemaker Experiment
Jacqueline Maureen Kiszka, Pennsylvania State University, York, PA; and N. M. Freeman and D. J. Amaya

9:30 AM
13B.5
Role of the Indo-Pacific Oceanic channel in ENSO dynamics
Dongliang Yuan, FIO, Qingdao, China; FIO, Qingdao, China

9:45 AM
13B.6
The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability
Antonietta Capotondi, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Zhao

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