Session 15B Verification of Ensemble Systems

Thursday, 16 January 2025: 1:45 PM-3:00 PM
207 (New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center)
Host: 33rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/29th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs:
Will Mayfield, NCAR/RAL, JNTP, Boulder, CO and Diana Rose Stovern, CIRES, WPC, College Park, MD

Papers:
1:45 PM
15B.1
Nature vs Nurture in Convective-Scale Ensemble Spread: Relative Influence of Inherited and Environmental Factors
Adam Gainford, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United kingdom; and S. Gray, T. Frame, A. Porson, and M. Milan

2:00 PM
15B.2
What is the minimum ensemble size to reduce the uncertainty in the skill of West-WRF hydrometeorological forecasts over California?
Michael A. Brunke, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and W. D. Scheftic, L. W. Siu, X. Zeng, L. Delle Monache, M. Simpson, and D. F. Steinhoff

2:15 PM
15B.3
Convection-Allowing Versus Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles for Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts
Craig Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO

2:30 PM
15B.4
Understanding Medium-Range Convective Scale Precipitation Errors from the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere
Eleanor Salm, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and M. W. Wong

2:45 PM
15B.5
Assessment of Time-Lagged, Medium-Range, High-Resolution Ensemble Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events
Anastasia Joy Tomanek, UCAR, Boulder, CO; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Schwartz

Recorded Presentation
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
See more of: 33rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/29th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
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