Verification of NWS Spot Forecasts for Prescribed Burns

The degree of improvement provided by spot and incident fire weather forecasts relative to National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts is examined. Critical elements of spot forecasts of surface weather (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and wind) are examined for the ~20,000 spot forecasts annually. Our goal is to evaluate fire weather forecasts as they pertain to local situations recognizing that the spot forecast elements requested by users and provided by NWS Forecast Offices varies substantively around the nation. Results and case studies within the period 2009-2013 will be presented.