The Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System

This paper presents the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System, or CFFEPS, a model to predict emissions and smoke plume development. The objective of the system is to provide estimates of smoke and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations for inclusion in the BlueSky Framework and used for smoke forecasting for Canada.

As a Canadian model, CFFEPS uses the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), including the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System. The model also uses elements from CONSUME 3.0 developed by the US Forest Service. The system consists of an elliptical fire-growth model, an emissions model and a model to predict the penetration height of a smoke plume, based on thermodynamic principles.