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Toward short-range ensemble prediction of mesoscale forecast skill
Eric P. Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
An expanded, short-range ensemble system at the University of Washington, known as the Analysis-Centroid Mirroring Ensemble (ACME), is investigated for its ability to objectively predict mesoscale forecast skill. Work using an antecedent short-range forecast ensemble included an examination of the relationship between the predicted spread and the observed skill for near-surface wind direction. Those methods are applied to one cool season (Nov 2002 - May 2003) of ACME forecasts of both wind direction and other sensible weather parameters. In addition, a potential second predictor of forecast skill, the variability among a set of sequential forecasts, is investigated.
Session 2, Mesoscale Predictability I
Monday, 23 June 2003, 2:30 PM-5:30 PM
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