Tuesday, 24 June 2003: 8:45 AM
Using AWIPS and VORTEX findings to forecast qualitative probability of significant tornadoes
One of the biggest challenges currently facing a National Weather Service operational forecaster is making an accurate warning decision for a potentially tornadic thunderstorm. The NWS WSR88-D radar has enabled forecasters to clearly observe mesocyclones within thunderstorms, but resolution of the actual tornado is only rarely possible due to the relatively small scale of the tornadic circulation compared to the width of the radar beam. The national false alarm ratio (FAR) for tornado warnings in 2001 was 72%, and the National Weather Service has identified the reduction of tornado warning FAR as a primary goal. Recent research results published by Dr. Paul Markowski from the VORTEX experiment have given exciting new clues as to the possible ingredients that may lead to the development of significant tornadoes. Many of these ingredients can be forecast, directly observed, or inferred using the National Weather Service's Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the past 14 months, three significant tornado events have occurred within the Springfield, Missouri National Weather Service Forecast Office county warning area, and all were observed to have the hypothesized necessary ingredients for significant tornadoes. By using Dr. Markowski's research results combined with AWIPS, operational forecasters may be able to significantly improve the skill of tornado warnings.
Supplementary URL: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/Events/wasola/wasola.shtml