Wednesday, 25 June 2003: 2:15 PM
Modeling of the 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE 2 Case
The IMPROVE II field study in December 2001 collected a comprehensive observational data set which will assist in improving bulk microphysical parameterizations (BMPs) present within mesoscale models. Yet, only after ensuring the mesoscale models' thermal structure, kinematics, and mesoscale features are correctly depicted, can the microphysical aspects of the simulations be evaluated.
The Fifth Generation Penn State / NCAR Mesoscale Model was utilized to simulate a storm system which affected the IMPROVE 2 study area during 13-14 December 2001. The storm system was characterized by strong low level cross barrier flow, heavy precipitation, and the passage of an intense baroclinic zone. Extensive verification was performed to compare the model depiction with the comprehensive array of observational assets available during the time period, including in situ plane measurements, profilers, upper air radiosonde measurements, radar data, and surface observations.
By applying a four dimensional data assimilation technique (FDDA)on the outer grids of the simulation, the model accurately represented the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm. The model properly captured the strong cross barrier flow, forward tilting vertical structure of the baroclinic zone, two major precipitation bands associated with the passage of a upper level baroclinic zone and a surface frontal feature, and the presence of orographically induced mesoscale features including mountain waves. Deficiencies in the model simulations were evident with an underprediction of 5-10 m/s in the strength of the the prefrontal flow between 700-950mb. Simulation errors were also present with an
overprediction of the leeside warming associated with
mountain waves especially in the 1.3 km inner domain. Storm
total precipitation verification indicated
model overprediction problems on the windward slopes and lee of the Cascades mountains, with accurate forecasted precipitation amounts on the coast and Willamette valley. Overall, the 13-14 December 2001 storm system was well depicted by the model and sufficient to isolate the BMPs
errors which produce inaccurate QPFs.
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