Modeled fuel moisture and fire occurence relationships in a Mediterranean region

The moisture content of fine dead fuels is a key variable in the wildfire studies, being related with fire ignition and spread and, definitively, conditioning fire danger. In this work, the dead fine fuel moisture was estimated at daily scale applying a set of models in a Mediterranean region (Sardinia, Italy) and comparing it with the fire occurrence (number of fires and burnt surface). Sardinia, the second largest island of the Mediterranean Sea heavily experiences summer fires. About half of the island surface is covered by forests and Mediterranean maquis. The weather input data related to the years 2000-2010 come from the regional net of weather stations. The results showed a good agreement of the outputs obtained by most of the applied models. High relationships were found between the modeled fuel moisture and the fire occurrence, confirming the importance of the dead fine fuel moisture prediction to forecast fire occurrence and behavior of these areas