11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology

Program Chairs: Timothy J. Brown , DRI ; Brian E. Potter , USDA Forest Service

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Monday, 4 May 2015

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 4 May 2015


Registration Opens
Location: St Croix (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)

Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015


Registration Continues Throughout the Conference
Location: St Croix (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)

9:00 AM-9:15 AM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015


Plenary Session 1
Opening
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Cochairs: Timothy J. Brown, DRI; Brian E. Potter, USDA Forest Service

9:15 AM-10:15 AM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 1
Meteorological Information in Fire Management Planning
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Michael D. Fromm, NRL
9:15 AM
1.1
An Hourly Operational Fire Danger Monitoring Tool
Beth L. Hall, Illinois State Water Survey/Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Champaign, IL; and T. J. Brown
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1.2
Modeling Fire Growth Potential by Emphasizing Significant Growth Events: Characterizing a Climatology of Fire Growth Days in Alaska's Boreal Forest
Robert H. Ziel, Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Fort Wainwright, AK; and J. Wolken, T. St. Clair, and M. Henderson
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (2.8 MB)

9:45 AM
1.3
Influence of Soil Moisture and 1000-h Dead Fuel Moisture on Frequency and Size of Large Wildfires in Oklahoma
J. D. Carlson, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK; and E. S. Krueger and T. Ochsner
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM
1.4
Examining National Weather Service Spot Forecasts for Prescribed and Wildland Fires
Nicholas J. Nauslar, SPC, Norman, OK
Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015


Coffee Break

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 2
Fire Weather Index Development
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Craig Clements, San Jose State University
10:45 AM
2.1
Historic Fire Weather Indices: Development and Implementation
Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, Lansing, MI; and A. F. Srock, B. E. Potter, and S. L. Goodrick
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2.2
What Would the Ideal Fire Weather Index Look Like?
Scott Goodrick, USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA; and B. E. Potter, J. J. Charney, and A. F. Srock
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2.3
Investigating Simple Fire Weather Indices Using Reanalysis Data
Alan F. Srock, Saint Cloud State Univ., Saint Cloud, MN; and J. J. Charney, S. L. Goodrick, and B. E. Potter
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2.4
Evaluation of a suite of simple fire indices for the 2014 Fire Season in the Pacific Northwest
Brian Potter, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, WA, Seattle, WA; and S. L. Goodrick, A. F. Srock, and J. J. Charney
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2.5
A Technique for Developing a Fire Weather Index Using Surface Meteorological Observations and a Climatology of Daily Wildfire Occurrence
Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, Lansing, MI; and M. J. Erickson and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 3
Smoke I
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Susan O'Neill, USDA
1:30 PM
3.1
Establishing a national standard methodology for operational mixing height determination
Matthew G. Fearon, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV; and T. J. Brown and G. M. Curcio
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
3.2
2014 FireWork Performance Analysis
Radenko Pavlovic, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and D. Davignon, P. A. Beaulieu, and M. D. Moran
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3.3
Characterizing drainage flows that result in smoke intrusions from prescribed burning
Miriam Rorig, USDA, Seattle, WA; and S. M. O'Neill and R. Graw
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3.4
An Alberta Plume Study and Comparison to Predictive Models
Kerry R. Anderson, Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and A. Pankratz, C. J. Mooney, and K. Fleetham
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (954.2 kB)

2:30 PM
3.5
BlueSky Playground for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: Web-Based Smoke Modeling for Military Installations in the Southeastern United States
ShihMing Huang, Sonoma Technology, petaluma, CA; and R. D. Ottmar, S. Prichard, N. K. Larkin, S. Raffuse, A. Cavallaro, L. Carrier, and K. Swedin
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3.6
Smoke modeling in a coupled fire-atmosphere framework
Adam K. Kochanski, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. A. Jenkins, J. Mandel, J. D. Beezley, K. Yedinak, and B. K. Lamb
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 4
Field Studies of Fire-Atmosphere Interactions
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Edward D. Delgado, National Interagency Fire Center
4.1
Continuous wind, temperature and humidity profiles as provided by wind profiling radar and passive microwave radiometer designed for quick deployment

3:30 PM
4.2
Doppler Lidar Observations of Plume Dynamics During the Rapid Deployments to Wildfires (RaDFire) Campaign
Craig B. Clements, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and N. P. Lareau

3:45 PM
4.3
Cold Smoke: Density currents cause unexpected smoke transport from large wildfires
Neil P. Lareau, San Jose State University, San José, CA; and C. B. Clements
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
4.4
Boundary Layer Evolution and Synoptic Meteorology of the King Fire, California
Christopher Camacho, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and N. P. Lareau and C. B. Clements
Recorded Presentation

4.5
Observed Atmospheric Turbulence Regimes During Wildland Fires in Forested Environments

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 May 2015


Formal Poster Viewing and Reception
Location: Lake Minnetonka (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)

Poster Session 1
Poster Session
Location: Lake Minnetonka (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Brian Potter, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, WA
1
Modeling fire emissions: A sensitivity study using an advanced statistical emulator
Marwan Katurji, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and J. Nikolic, S. Zhong, and W. E. Heilman

2
The Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index
Thomas Rolinski, USDA, Riverside, CA; and R. G. Fovell, S. Capps, Y. Cao, B. D'Agostino, and S. Vanderburg

Handout (1.4 MB)

3
An evaluation of a turbulent kinetic energy based fire-weather index during large wildfire events in the western United States
Xindi Bian, USDA Forest Service, Lansing, MI; and W. E. Heilman, S. Zhong, J. J. Charney, and M. T. Kiefer

4
Monitoring and modelling forest fire emissions toward an accurate inventory development
Valentina Bacciu, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), Sassari, Italy; and M. Salis and D. Spano

5
Improving Medium-range Dry Lightning Forecasts for Southern California
Thomas Rolinski, USDA, Riverside, CA; and S. Capps and E. Aykutlug

6
Modeled fuel moisture and fire occurence relationships in a Mediterranean region
Costantino Sirca, University of Sassari; CMCC, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Sassari, Italy; and D. Spano

7
Digital video analysis of smoke movement: an opportunistic proof of concept
Brian Potter, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, WA, Seattle, WA; and L. A. Pierce

8
Meteorological and fire behavioural lessons learned from the Aberfeldy Fire (Victoria) on 17 January 2013
Robert JB Fawcett, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and T. Wells, C. Yeo, and W. Thurston

Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 5
Use of Weather and Climate Information I
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Michael J. Erickson, SUNY/Stony Brook University
9:00 AM
5.1
Fire Weather and Atmospheric Condition Commonalities Affecting June 2002 to 2013 Colorado (USA) Wildfires
Fred J. Schoeffler, Sheff LLC, Pine, AZ
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

9:15 AM
5.2
Fire Weather Impact Based Performance Metric
Robyn Heffernan, NOAA Fire and Public Weather Services Branch, Boise, ID
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5.3
A simple model for the live fuel moisture of chamise
Robert G. Fovell, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and T. Rolinski and Y. Cao
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.0 MB)

9:45 AM
5.4
Relationships between Daily Fire Danger and Daily Fire activity Characterized across the Continental U.S. Using the MODIS Active Fire and Burned Area Products
Patrick H. Freeborn, USDA, Missoula, MT; and W. M. Jolly and M. A. Cochrane
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 6 May 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Lake Minnetonka (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 6
Model Studies I
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: W. Matt Jolly, US Forest Service
10:30 AM
6.1
Modelling the fire weather of the Coonabarabran (NSW) fire of 13 January 2013
Robert JB Fawcett, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and C. Yeo, W. Thurston, J. D. Kepert, and K. J. Tory
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
6.2
Experimental real-time smoke forecasting at ESRL/GSD using the operational High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)
Steven E. Peckham, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell, M. Pagowski, S. R. Freitas, B. Pierce, and S. Kondragunta

11:00 AM
6.3
Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Fire Behavior using Numerical Weather Prediction
David A. Peterson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. J. Hyer, J. R. Campbell, J. E. Solbrig, and M. D. Fromm
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
6.4
Exploring Ensemble Kalman Filter Performance on Fire Weather Days over the Northeast United States
Michael J. Erickson, WPC/CIRES, College Park, MD; and J. J. Charney and B. Colle
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
6.5
Preliminary Results from a Two-Year Intensive Field Study of Oklahoma Grassland Fuels
J. D. Carlson, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK; and D. M. Engle, D. Twidwell, A. S. West, S. D. Fuhlendorf, and T. Ochsner
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
6.6
Laboratory Experiments on the Effects of Wind Direction on Behavior of Fire Whirls Downwind of Fire
Masahiko Shinohara, National Research Institute of Fire and Disaster, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Matsushima
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.8 MB)

12:00 PM
6.7
Hi-resolution fire weather and climatology from dynamical downscaling
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and G. Mills, S. Harris, D. Podnar, M. Fearon, and H. J. Reinbold
Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Recording files available
Conference Luncheon
Location: Lake Calhoun Room (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Speaker: Robert H. Ziel, Alaska Department of Natural Resources
12:15 PM
Robert H. Ziel, Alaska Department of Natural Resources
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM-2:45 PM: Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 7
Smoke II
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Kerry R. Anderson, Canadian Forest Service
1:45 PM
7.1
Constructing an improved time series of satellite-retrieved fire radiative power during large wildfires
Edward J. Hyer, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Curtis, J. P. Hoffman, D. A. Peterson, E. M. Prins, J. S. Reid, and C. C. Schmidt
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
7.2
Identifying and Quantifying the Impact of Wildfires on Utah's Air Quality
Derek V. Mallia, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. K. Kochanski, J. Lin, and S. Urbanski
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
7.3
Megafires and Smoke Exposure under Future Climate Scenarios in the Contiguous United States
Sean Raffuse, Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA; and N. K. Larkin, S. Huang, S. Drury, and K. Lorentz
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
7.4
Comparison of national-scale biomass burning emission estimates using the latest in emission factor research in the BlueSky smoke modeling framework
Susan O'Neill, USDA, Seattle, WA; and S. Larkin and M. Rorig
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM-3:15 PM: Wednesday, 6 May 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Lake Minnetonka (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)

3:15 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 6 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 8
Operational Forecasting (short- to long-term) of Fire Weather
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Marlin Martinez, USDA
3:15 PM
8.1
A Statistical Analysis of Energy Release Component for Large Wildland Fires on the Southern Great Plains
T. Todd Lindley, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and K. Schneider, N. Fenner, G. P. Murdoch, B. R. Smith, and C. Maxwell
Manuscript (882.6 kB)

3:30 PM
8.2
Analyses of Fire-Effective Low-Level Thermal Ridges on the Southern Great Plains
T. Todd Lindley, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and B. R. Bowers, G. P. Murdoch, and B. R. Smith
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
8.3
Detection and Monitoring of Intense Pyroconvection using Remote Sensing and Numerical Weather Prediction
David A. Peterson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and E. J. Hyer, J. R. Campbell, J. E. Solbrig, and M. D. Fromm
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
8.4
Prediction of seasonal wildland fire severity in South Dakota using artificial neural networks
Darren Clabo, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and J. M. Weiss
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
8.5
NOAA Fire Weather Science and Technology Program: Emphasis on Improved Fire Weather Tools for IMETs and Firefighters
Peter Roohr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Heffernan, H. Hockenberry, T. McClung, S. Schranz, E. Jacks, and L. VanBussum
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
8.6
Quantifying the North American Monsoon's Impact on Fire Activity in the Southwestern United States
Nicholas J. Nauslar, SPC, Norman, OK
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
8.7
Offshore flow as a proxy for thermal trough analysis
Brian Potter, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, WA, Seattle, WA; and J. Saltenberger
Recorded Presentation

Thursday, 7 May 2015

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 7 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 9
Model Studies II
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: David C. Kinniburgh, Monash University
9:00 AM
9.1
Toward a better understanding of overstory tree mortality: a study of fire-atmosphere interactions inside a forest canopy
Michael T. Kiefer, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and W. E. Heilman, S. Zhong, J. J. Charney, X. Bian, M. Dickinson, and K. Kavanagh
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
9.2
The dynamics of pyro-tornadogenesis using a coupled fire-atmosphere model
David C. Kinniburgh, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia; and M. J. Reeder and T. P. Lane
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
9.3
Simulating low-intensity experimental fires using a coupled-fire/atmosphere behavior model
Rodman R. Linn, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and J. Winterkamp, J. Furman, and B. Williams
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
9.4
The effects of fire-plume dynamics on the lateral and longitudinal spread of long-range spotting
Will Thurston, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and K. J. Tory, R. J. Fawcett, and J. D. Kepert
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM
9.5
Integrated fire-atmosphere prediction system with data assimilation
Adam K. Kochanski, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. A. Jenkins, J. Mandel, M. Vejmelka, and S. Schranz
Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 7 May 2015


Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 7 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 10
Use of Weather and Climate Information II
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Robyn Heffernan, NOAA Fire and Public Weather Services Branch
11:00 AM
10.1
The Severe 2014 Wildfire Season in Canada's Northwest Territories: Extreme Meteorological, Fire Danger, and Fire Behavior Conditions
Mike Flannigan, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; and B. J. Stocks, D. Quintilio, K. Johnson, G. Marshall, and M. Coyle
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
10.2
Canadian Pyrocumulonimbus Storms in 2014 Within a Global Context
Michael D. Fromm, NRL, Washington, DC; and R. Servranckx
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
10.3
The Great Slave Lake PyroCb of 2014-08-05: Observations and Impacts
George P. Kablick III, NRL, Washington, DC; and M. Fromm, S. D. Miller, and P. T. Partain
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
10.4
Weather Forecasts and The Yarnell Hill Fire: Modest Reflections on Knowing What We Know and Acknowledging What We Don’t
Elizabeth Nowicki, Albany Law School, Albany, NY

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 7 May 2015


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 7 May 2015

Recording files available
Session 11
Use of Weather and Climate Information III
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
Chair: Will Thurston, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
1:30 PM
11.1
Linking local wildfire dynamics to pyroCb development
Rick McRae, Australian Capital Territory Emergency Services Agency, Canberra, Australia; and J. J. Sharples and M. D. Fromm
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
11.2
Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979-2013
W. Matt Jolly, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT; and M. A. Cochrane, P. H. Freeborn, Z. A. Holden, T. J. Brown, G. J. Williamson, and D. M. J. S. Bowman

2:00 PM
11.3
Climate Change, Reduced Arctic Ice, the Altered Pacific Jet Stream and the California Wildfire Season: Coincidence?
Basil Newmerzhycky, USDA, Redding, CA
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
11.4
Climate and changes in fire potential for southeastern United States
Scott Goodrick, USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA; and M. D. Williams
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 7 May 2015


Session 12
Closing
Location: Great Lakes Ballroom (Crowne Plaza Minneapolis Northstar)
Host: 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 7 May 2015


Conference Adjourns
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