A Mesoscale Re-analysis of Anticipated Severe Weather Threats in the Ozarks During the Week of May 4th-10th 2003

The availability of real-time mesoscale data, including surface observations, wind profilers, and upper-air soundings, coupled with mesoscale numerical model output has enabled operational meteorologists to test hypotheses presented in recent studies (Markowski, Davies, etc...) regarding forecasts of severe weather threats. These studies have suggested that successful analysis of the near-storm environment, specifically with respect to lower tropospheric thermodynamics and vertical shear profiles, can provide significant skill in discriminating among severe weather threats. The week of May 4-10th 2003 brought an extraordinary frequency and intensity of severe weather to the Missouri Ozarks and Southeast Kansas, including very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. While expected threats included strong to violent tornadoes on three seperate days during the period, such an event occurred only on May 4 2003. This paper will use several techniques developed by previous authors to re-evaluate anticipated severe weather threats during the May 2003 outbreak week over the Ozarks region.