By combing ultra-high resolution modeling (dx < 100 m) with the EnKF storm-scale analysis we will analyze a storm-scale simulation that, at least initially, represents a best estimate the observed storm. This methodology is being proposed as a possible analysis technique for convective scale observations from several field programs (e.g., BAMEX and VORTEX-II). The simulated storm will be closely compared and validated via the available observations from nearby radars (not used in the data assimilation) as well as other available in situ measurements.
A close comparison between the simulated storm and the observational analysis presented in Part I by Burgess (2004) will be done, including a comparison of time-height diagrams, timing and vertical structure of the tornado formation, tornado track, intensity, etc. While it is unlikely that the simulated storm will closely match the observations for a long period of time or in such fine detail, the success of EnKF analysis for convective storm analysis (and in this case particularly) has encouraged us to attempt a detailed simulation and analysis so that we can evaluate the potential usefulness of this approach.