Session 1.5 Risk management decision support for Traffic Flow Management

Monday, 4 October 2004: 11:30 AM
Stephen M. Zobell, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA

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Future Traffic Flow Management decision support systems will use probabilistic forecasts to assist operational personnel in predicting and managing weather and traffic congestion. These forecasts will provide information about the uncertainties in the forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts will include not only weather forecasts, but also flight density and demand forecasts. The added dimension of probability and uncertainty in forecasts will likely make it difficult for people to understand and make good decisions without automation assistance. Risk management concepts are being examined to allow automated decision support tools to interpret and integrate probabilistic forecast information, and to suggest strategies for dealing with traffic flow situations under these uncertain forecasts. This paper describes risk management concepts currently under development, and how the behaviors of risk management decision support systems are expected to enhance the Traffic Flow Management processes. When forecasts are uncertain, risk management decision support tools may recommend partial management of future problems provided there is sufficient flexibility to manage the remainder in the future. Decision making will be distributed, with airlines and airspace users being informed and given opportunities to make their own risk management decisions.

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