The need for precise weather forecasts for air traffic management

Air traffic management requires accurate and consistent weather forecasts to be effective. However, the importance of precision of forecasts is often underestimated. A change in the visibility of only ½ mile can have a pronounced impact on Airport Arrival Rate (AAR), and a change in the ceiling of only 100 feet can impact hundreds of flights. The influence of weather (ceiling, visibility, wind speed/direction, turbulence, thunderstorms) on AAR is strongly non-linear. In another example, air traffic management in both the FAA and industry requires a degree of precision in the location, timing, area coverage, and height of thunderstorms. Precise forecasts of critical weather variables are needed up to 6 hours in advance for effective air traffic management.