Poster Session P3.5 Operational feedback reports to providers of Aviation's Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

Monday, 4 October 2004
Duane Torbert, FAA, Herndon, VA, VA; and D. Rodenhuis

Handout (83.6 kB)

For the past 4 years the FAA and the airlines have used the Collaborative Convective Weather Forecast (CCFP) for strategic planning and management of air traffic flow around significant areas of thunderstorms. This forecast is the result of collaboration between Providers in the National Weather Service (NWS), the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), and operational airline weather centers. Subsequently, every day the forecast is evaluated by the Users, and the results fed back to the providers of the forecast; specifically the forecasters at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), the Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs), the MSC and airline met offices. In addition to the qualitative judgment of users, analytic expressions of forecast quality are calculated: accuracy (POD), precision (Bias), and consistency. Examples will be given and summarized. The concept of provided direct feedback from forecast Users to forecast Providers has stimulated three accomplishments: 1) increased forecast skill; 2) changes in forecast objectives and procedures; and 3) an increased perception of value to the Users.

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