17.4 Changes to the NCEP SREF system and their impact on convective forecasting

Friday, 8 October 2004: 11:15 AM
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. T. McQueen, J. Du, and B. S. Ferrier

Upcoming changes to the NCEP short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system will add physics uncertainty to the initial condition uncertainty sampled by the current operational version of the system. Sampling some of the physics uncertainty will be accomplished by running various convective parameterization schemes, giving the potential for significant impact to forcasting of convective events and the environments in which they form.

This talk will discuss the new configuration of the SREF and its impact on forecasting significant convective events. Emphasis will be placed on the influence of the shallow branches of the different convective schemes on the degree of instability available in the pre-convective enviroment and forecast sounding structure in general.

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