An analysis of Eta model forecast soundings in radiation fog forecasting

Radiation fog forecasting continues to be a significant challenge to aviation meteorologists. Current training and information on the development of radiation fog would imply that forecast soundings should be able to provide additional independent information, which could improve current forecasts. Eta model soundings frequently show the typical "goal post" feature, indicative of radiation fog events. This study of Eta model forecast soundings also shows that significant fog can be anticipated when the surface temperature drops below the dew point temperature aloft, as indicated in the sounding. This is consistent with current scientific thinking and also with a forecast technique developed at United Parcel Service. Sample soundings are presented and comparisons are made to Model Output Statistics.

*Corresponding author address: Steve Amburn, National Weather Service Forecast Office, 10159 East 11th Street, Suite 300, Tulsa, OK 74128; email Steve.Amburn@noaa.gov