10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology


Verification of RUC Surface Forecasts at Major U.S. Airport Hubs

Barry E. Schwartz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

A surface verification of forecasts from the 40km and 20km RUC models is routinely performed for wind, temperature, and dewpoint. This verification is performed for over 1500 METAR locations within the RUC domain, and the verification has been saved for each station/time. This allows verification statistics over extended periods at specific METAR locations. This technique has already been used to improve post-processing of RUC surface forecasts for coastal METAR locations. In this paper, we will present results for verification of RUC 40km and 20km surface forecasts at 10-15 major U.S. hubs, and the verification will be extended to also include ceiling and visibility. These results of this study may help to identify systematic surface forecast problems in the RUC20, including misspecification of land-surface fixed fields such as vegetation type and surface roughness length. The results should also be of interest to those involved in general aviation weather forecasting and TAF preparation.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (224K)

Session 9, Forecast Evaluation/Verification (Parallel with Session 8)
Wednesday, 15 May 2002, 1:15 PM-5:15 PM

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