The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program's Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT) is developing an automated system that produces forecasts of convective weather for the heavily traveled air traffic routes in the Great Lakes/Northeast corridor (Chicago to New York) in support of traffic flow management decision-makers. Principal PDT members include Lincoln Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and Forecast Systems Laboratory. The 2-hr Regional Convective Weather Forecast (RCWF) will be provided to users as part of the proof-of-concept Corridor Integrated Weather System, which began operations in July 2001 with a 1-hr RCWF. Specifically in 2002, RCWF will forecast the probability of NWS-level 3 and greater radar-reflectivity for 8 successive 15-minute periods up to 2 hours into the future. Predictions will update every 5 min.

This forecast system utilizes the method of combining interest maps at each forecast epoch. The interest maps are based on feature extraction using functional template correlation and advection. Each feature contributes differently at each forecast epoch. Accordingly, this system emphasizes small scale forcing (e.g. storm initiation, growth, and dissipation) during the 0 - 60 min forecast range and larger scale forcing (e.g. fronts) for the 60 - 120 min forecast range, and each forcing is advected with it own motion field.

This talk will review (1) the basic meteorological data utilized in the forecast, (2) the features having the greatest influence at each forecast horizon, and (3) the methods used to combine the features in order to generate the sequence of forecasts. Finally, we will discuss the Lincoln Laboratory vision of the role that weather information can play in reducing air traffic congestion in the en-route air space.

* This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. F19628-00-C-0002. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Government. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the US Government.