13th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

SUN 12 MAY

SHORT COURSE REGISTRATION

Short Course on Applied Climatology for Today's Business Applications

CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

MON 13 MAY

CONFERENCE REGISTRATION CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, 16 MAY

Welcoming Remarks: Greg Johnson, Program Chairperson

1

Climate Networks

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Greg Johnson, USDA-NRCS, National Water and Climate Center

Papers:

9:00 AM

1.1

Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) Modernization

Andrew H. Horvitz, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. J. Leffler

9:15 AM

1.2

The Health of the National Weather Service Cooperative Program—One State's Perspective

Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (15.2 kB)

9:30 AM

1.3

2002 U.S. Historical Climatology Network

Claude N. Williams Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and R. Vose and D. Easterling

9:45 AM

1.4

What Good Is A Dense Volunteer Network For Measuring Rain And Hail?

Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (136.9 kB)

10:00 AM

1.5

Beware of Stitching Together a Mesonet

Brian B. Ayers, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and P. G. Knight

Poster PDF (80.3 kB)

1

Overview

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: Mark T Surmeier, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

9:00 AM

1.1

Welcoming Remarks

9:15 AM

1.2

An Update to the FAA's National Airspace System Weather Architecture

Cheryl G. Souders, FAA, Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter

Poster PDF (86.1 kB)

9:30 AM

1.3

The Role of ITWS in the National Airspace System Modernization: An Update

Cheryl G. Souders, FAA, Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter

Poster PDF (150.0 kB)

9:45 AM

1.4

The Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) Proof of Concept Demonstration

Kimberlea D. Price, FAA, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. L. Sims and S. McGettigan

Poster PDF (103.0 kB)

10:00 AM

1.5

Advanced Weather Projects Desired to Improve Space Launch from the Eastern Range and Kennedy Space Center

William P. Roeder, U.S. Air Force/45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and F. J. Merceret, B. F. Boyd, F. C. Brody, and D. E. Harms

Poster PDF (328.9 kB)

10:15 AM

1.6

New Weather Products Developed by the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Weather Research Program

Gloria J. Kulesa, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC; and P. J. Kirchoffer, D. J. Pace, W. L. Fellner, J. E. Sheets, and V. S. Travers

10:30 AM

1.7

Technology transfer at the Aviation Weather Center: Developing, testing, and implementing new forecast tools

David I. Knapp, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and R. J. Olson, F. R. Mosher, J. A. May, and S. R. Silberberg

Poster PDF (25.3 kB)

10:45 AM

1.8

The 20-km Rapid Update Cycle—overview and implications for aviation applications

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, K. J. Brundage, D. Devenyi, G. A. Grell, D. Kim, T. G. Smirnova, T. L. Smith, B. E. Schwartz, S. S. Weygandt, and G. S. Manikin

Poster PDF (285.9 kB)

11:00 AM

1.9

Enhancements to Terminal Doppler Weather Radar to Improve Aviation Weather Services

Gabriel R. Elkin, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and O. J. Newell and M. E. Weber

Poster PDF (115.1 kB)

11:15 AM

1.10

Aviation and Weather—A New Initiative in Germany

Thomas Hauf, Univ. of Hannover, Hanover, Germany; and U. Schumann and H. Leykauf

Poster PDF (11.5 kB)

11:30 AM

1.4A

Coffee Break

2

Data Reliability and Usability

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center

Papers:

10:30 AM

2.1

Quality assessment of monthly temperature data

David A. Robinson, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ; and J. Parlagreco

Poster PDF (23.8 kB)

10:45 AM

2.2

Quality Assurance of Monthly Temperature Observations at the National Climatic Data Center

Matthew J. Menne, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and C. E. Duchon

Poster PDF (920.2 kB)

11:00 AM

2.3

Realtime Filtering Techniques of Air Temperature Data in Weather Stations

Kenneth G. Hubbard, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and X. Lin

Poster PDF (461.8 kB)

11:15 AM

2.4

Identifying inhomogeneities in precipitation time series

Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and T. L. Fowler

Poster PDF (196.3 kB)

11:30 AM

2.5

Oregon HCN Data—New or Old, Which One is Correct?

George H. Taylor, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and A. Matzke and M. Mitchell

Poster PDF (11.2 kB)

11:45 AM

2.6

Data Mining: Gold or Pyrite

Glen Conner, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY

12:00 PM

2.7

Climate Data Continuity—What Have We Learned From The ASOS Automated Surface Observing System

Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. B. McKee and C. Davey

Poster PDF (90.6 kB)

12:15 PM

2.8

Digitization of historical daily cooperative network data

Nathaniel B. Guttman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

Poster PDF (28.4 kB)

12:30 PM

2.9

Estimated Observation Times for Cooperative Stations

Karen Andsager, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. E. Kunkel

Poster PDF (16.9 kB)

12:45 PM

2.10

Homogeneity Assessment of Canadian Precipitation Data for Joined Stations

Éva Mekis, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. Vincent

Poster PDF (264.1 kB)

1:00 PM

2.11

A climatology of extreme hourly temperature variability across the United States: application to quality control.

Daniel Y. Graybeal, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. L. Eggleston and A. T. DeGaetano

Poster PDF (169.9 kB)

1:15 PM

2.12

Inter-Comparison of Real-Time Rain Gage and Radar-Estimated Rainfall on a Monthly Basis for Midwestern United States Counties

Nancy E. Westcott, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. E. Kunkel

Poster PDF (3.2 MB)

1:30 PM

2.13

Comparison of Snowfall Measurements from Six Windshields

Claude E. Duchon, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. G. Wade and J. A. Cole

1:45 PM

2.14

Station density strategy for monitoring long-term climatic change in the contiguous United States

Michael J. Janis, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and K. G. Hubbard and K. T. Redmond

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

2:00 PM

2.15

Snow Cover Data for Applied Climate Studies

David A. Robinson, Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ

Poster PDF (348.2 kB)

2:15 PM

2.16

The impact of unique meteorological phenomena detected by the Oklahoma Mesonet on automated quality control

Chris A. Fiebrich, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (633.0 kB)

2:30 PM

2.5A

Lunch Break

4:00 PM

2.12A

Coffee Break

Lunch Break

2

Aviation Weather Case Studies/Accident Reviews

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: Wayne R. Sand, Aviation Weather Consultants, LLC

Papers:

1:15 PM

2.1

Spreading of isolated contrails during the 2001 air traffic shutdown

Patrick Minnis, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and L. Nguyen, D. P. Duda, and R. Palikonda

Poster PDF (692.2 kB)

1:30 PM

2.2

An Unusual Icing Case: 20 March 2000, Denver, Colorado

M. K. Politovich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. C. Bernstein, J. Hopewell, T. Lindholm, L. Gauerke, C. Knabel, D. Hazen, and B. Martner

Poster PDF (697.5 kB)

1:45 PM

2.3

Numerical simulation of a convective turbulence encounter

Fred H. Proctor, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and D. W. Hamilton and R. L. Bowles

Poster PDF (444.1 kB)

2.4

Low altitude windshear at major Australian Airports and the Risks to Aviation

2:15 PM

2.5

Summary of the HELIOS 96,863 Foot World Record Flight

Edward H. Teets, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA; and C. Donohue

2:30 PM

2.6

A case study of atmospheric conditions at 2-19 km over Vandenburg AFB during passage of a cyclone

G. D. Nastrom, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN; and F. D. Eaton and E. Boll

2:45 PM

2.7

Case studies of selected Runway Visual Range (RVR) events at three major USA airports

David A. Hazen, Titan/System Resources Corporation, Billerica, MA; and T. A. Seliga, L. G. Jacobs, and P. Narvett

http://

Poster PDF (486.6 kB)

Coffee Break

3

Aviation Operations Support (Parallel with Session 4)

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: James H. Henderson, Aviation Weather Center, National Weather Service, NOAA

Papers:

3:30 PM

3.1

Development of Automated Aviation Weather Products for Oceanic/Remote Regions: Scientific and Practical Challenges, Research Strategies, and First Steps

Paul H. Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. R. Williams, T. A. Lindholm, F. R. Mosher, C. Kessinger, R. Sharman, J. D. Hawkins, and D. B. Johnson

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/owpdt/

Poster PDF (161.9 kB)

3:45 PM

3.2

Development of Automated National Ceiling and Visibility Products: Scientific and Practical Challenges, Research Strategies, and First Steps

Paul Herzegh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. R. Petty, S. G. Benjamin, R. Rasmussen, T. Tsui, G. Wiener, and P. Zwack

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/cvis/

Poster PDF (174.1 kB)

4:00 PM

3.3

Mitigating the impact of oceanic weather hazards on transoceanic flights

Alan Nierow, FAA, Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter, F. R. Mosher, and T. Lindholm

Poster PDF (148.8 kB)

4:15 PM

3.4

Oceanic Weather: A Program to Enhance the Quality and Timeliness of Aviation Weather Information for Remote and Oceanic Regions

Tenny A. Lindholm, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Burns

Poster PDF (181.1 kB)

4:30 PM

3.5

The Collaborative Convective Forecast Project from the Aviation Weather Center's Perspective

Horace R. Hudson, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and F. P. Foss

4:45 PM

3.6

Using ORPG to Enhance NEXRAD Products to Support FAA Critical Systems

David J. Smalley, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and B. J. Bennett

Poster PDF (224.7 kB)

5:00 PM

3.7

Recent developments in an atmospheric decision aid to better characterize optical turbulence and high clouds

Randy J. Lefevre, U.S. Air Force, Kirtland AFB, NM

5:15 PM

3.8

Implementing ADDS Operationally at the NWS Aviation Weather Center

Lynn Sherretz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Pratt, G. Thompson, and J. Henderson

Poster PDF (25.2 kB)

4

Icing (Parallel with Session 3)

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: Marcia K. Politovich, NCAR

Papers:

3:30 PM

4.1

Issues in Forecasting Icing Severity

M. K. Politovich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. McDonough and B. C. Bernstein

Poster PDF (160.9 kB)

3:45 PM

4.2

Supercooled liquid water cloud properties derived from GOES: Comparisons with in-situ aircraft measurements

William L. Smith Jr., NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, B. C. Bernstein, A. D. Rapp, and P. W. Heck

Poster PDF (89.4 kB)

4:00 PM

4.3

ADWICE—Advanced Diagnosis and Warning System for Aircraft Icing Environments

C. Leifeld, Univ. of Hannover, Hannover, Germany; and T. Hauf, A. Tafferner, and H. Leykauf

Poster PDF (20.9 kB)

4:15 PM

4.4

Detailed comparisons of aircraft icing environments and Model-Predicted Mircophysics

Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rasmussen and B. Bernstein

4:30 PM

4.5

An in-flight Airframe icing nowcast for use with the Aerosonde

Jade R. Soddell, University of Technology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and K. McGuffie and G. J. Holland

Poster PDF (718.2 kB)

4:45 PM

4.6

Dual-polarization radar as a tool for operational identification of different types of meteorological and non-meteorological targets

Alexander V. Ryzhkov, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. M. Janish, T. J. Schuur, P. Zhang, and K. L. Elmore

Poster PDF (358.0 kB)

5:00 PM

4.7

Rain-snow discrimination with polarimetric radar

Edward A. Brandes, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vivekanandan and R. M. Rasmussen

Poster PDF (92.1 kB)

5:15 PM

4.8

Mean volume radius estimates from aircraft, radiometer, and Doppler radar observations during the AIRS Field Project

Ismail Gultepe, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and G. A. Isaac, D. Hudak, and S. Sekelsky

Poster PDF (442.6 kB)

3

Climatology of Storms and Heavy Precipitation

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Steven Hollinger, Illinois State Water Survey/Univ. of Illinios

Papers:

4:30 PM

3.1

Annual and Seasonal Storm Structure across the United States

Steven E. Hollinger, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. R. Angel and M. A. Palecki

Poster PDF (304.9 kB)

4:45 PM

3.2

Interannual Variability in Storm Structure in the United States

Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. R. Angel and S. E. Hollinger

5:00 PM

3.3

Temporal Changes in Storm Structure for the United States

James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. A. Palecki and S. E. Hollinger

5:15 PM

3.4

Re-evaluation of extreme rainfall areal reduction factors

Robert J. Allen, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

Poster PDF (606.1 kB)

Oral Sessions End for the day

Joint Poster Session 1

Joint Poster Session with Reception

Sponsors: (Joint between the 13th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )

Organizer: William W. Vaughan, University of Alabama

Papers:

JP1.1

Predictability of seasonal runoff in the Mississippi River basin

Edwin P. Maurer, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier

JP1.2

Progress Report on the Integrated Terminal Weather System's GFMosaic Algorithm

Justin D. Shaw, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and S. W. Troxel

Poster PDF (188.5 kB)

JP1.3

Retrospective evaluation of the performance of experimental long-lead Columbia River streamflow forecasting methods

Alan F. Hamlet, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier

JP1.4

Spatial and lead time accuracies of thunderstorm forecasts for air traffic control

Helen A. Watkin, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. R. Scott and D. J. Hoad

Poster PDF (56.0 kB)

JP1.5

The development of a long-range forecast tool for Shemya winds using CART analysis

Brian K. Schroeder, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther

JP1.6

Performance Support Delivery System for use in Civil, Commercial, and Military Weather Training and Performance Improvement

Roger C. Whiton, SAIC, O'Fallon, IL; and L. K. Starlin, R. G. Borchers, and A. A. Guiffrida

JP1.7

The impact of drought on municipal water supplies in Kentucky: A case study from the drought of 1999–2001

Stuart A. Foster, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY

JP1.8

The Iowa Environmental Mesonet—observing climate at the mesoscale

Dennis P. Todey, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. S. Takle and S. E. Taylor

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu

Poster PDF (64.3 kB)

JP1.9

The utility of Landsat-7 ETM+ data for identifying agricultural damage due to severe thunderstorms in western Illinois.

Mace L. Bentley, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and T. Mote and P. Thebpanya

JP1.10

Use of Probabilistic Convective Forecasts in Traffic Flow Management Decision Support

Stephen M. Zobell, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and C. G. Ball and J. E. Sherry

JP1.11

Wind shear and turbulence at the São Paulo International Airport

Augusto J. Pereira Fo, Univ. of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; and C. V. C. Fogaccia

Poster PDF (288.5 kB)

JP1.12

The impacts of microphysical schemes and parameter choices on icing diagnoses using the UAF integrated in-flight icing diagnostic algorithm for Alaska

Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and X. Meng and G. Kramm

Poster PDF (149.2 kB)

JP1.13

On the impacts of microphysical schemes and parameter choices on MM5 simulations of warm-season high latitude cloud and precipitation systems

Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and G. Kramm

Poster PDF (185.5 kB)

JP1.14

A new algorithm to estimate aircraft icing in the HIRLAM-model

Bernt Olofsson, Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters, Stockholm, Sweden; and E. Olsson and T. Mårtensson

Poster PDF (170.7 kB)

JP1.15

An estimation of CONUS contrail frequency from RUC and flight track data

David P. Duda, Hampton University, Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, P. K. Costulis, and R. Palikonda

Poster PDF (212.1 kB)

JP1.16

Analyzing Erosive Potential across the United States

JP1.17

Climatalogy Applications of the 4DWX ARAD System

Scott F. Halvorson, U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground West Desert Test Center, Dugway, UT; and J. C. Chastang, D. L. Leberknight, R. T. Sandblom, and D. T. Hahn

JP1.18

Climatology Study of Aircraft Turbulence versus Cloud Cover

Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Sharman and B. C. Bernstein

Poster PDF (221.9 kB)

JP1.19

A Geospatial Decision Support System for Drought and Crop Risk Analysis in Nebraska

William J. Waltman, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda, M. J. Hayes, J. S. Peake, T. Tadesse, S. Goddard, and S. E. Reichenbach

JP1.20

Cloud Radar Observations at Kennedy Space Center During the ABFM Experiment

Brooks E. Martner, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. Koury, E. Defer, T. L. Schneider, B. W. Bartram, and W. B. Madsen

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

JP1.21

Fuzzy rule-based approach to evaluate air temperature biases in weather stations

X. Lin, High Plains Regional Climate Center, Lincoln, NE; and K. G. Hubbard, D. D. Jones, and G. Merino

Poster PDF (116.7 kB)

JP1.22

High Spatial Density Precipitation Network in Minnesota

Peter J. Boulay, State Climatology Office/Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN

Poster PDF (288.5 kB)

JP1.23

Impact of sub-sampling strategies on North American climate statistics

John M. Henderson, AER, Inc., Lexington, MA; and R. D. Rosen and D. A. Salstein

JP1.24

Incorporating data from GOES and POES platforms into an integrated in-flight icing diagnostic algorithm for Alaska

Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and X. Meng and J. Long

Poster PDF (64.7 kB)

JP1.25

Drought Monitoring Activities in NCDC's Climate Monitoring Branch

Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and S. E. Stephens, K. L. Gleason, and J. H. Lawrimore

Poster PDF (675.7 kB)

JP1.26

The 2001 Demonstration of Automated Cloud Forecast Guidance Products for San Francisco International Airport

David A. Clark, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA

Poster PDF (70.4 kB)

JP1.27

Aviation Forecasting using Adaptive Unstructured Grids

David P. Bacon, SAIC, McLean, VA; and Z. Boybeyi and R. A. Sarma

http://vortex.atgteam.com

Poster PDF (365.1 kB)

JP1.28

3D Multi-radar Reflectivity Mosaic for CIWS Domain

Jian Zhang, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. J. Gourley, W. Xia, and K. Howard

Poster PDF (578.7 kB)

JP1.29

Forecasting C-G lightning potential at WSMR

Thomas R. Saxen, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (35.3 kB)

JP1.30

Homogeneous blended wind data over the contiguous United States

Pavel Ya. Groisman, UCAR and NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and H. P. Barker

JP1.31

The Ventilation Index Climate Information System (VCIS)

Sue Ferguson, USDA - Forest Service; and S. J. McKay, D. E. Nagel, T. Piepho, M. Rorig, C. Anderson, and L. Kellogg

JP1.32

An Evaluation of the Medium-Intensity Airport Weather System (MIAWS) Products at Memphis, TN and Jackson, MS International Airports

Mark A. Isaminger, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and E. A. Proseus

Poster PDF (821.7 kB)

JP1.33

Suitability of the Judd Ultrasonic Snow Depth Sensor for Estimating 6- and 24-Hour Snowfall Amounts

Doug G. Cripe, Kent State Univ., Kent, OH; and N. Doesken

Poster PDF (87.8 kB)

TUE 14 MAY

5

Stochastic Weather Simulation Models (a.k.a. weather generators)and Their Applications (Parallel with Session 4)

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Clayton Hanson, USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center

Papers:

8:00 AM

5.1

The GEM (Generation of weather Elements for Multiple applications) weather simulation model

Clayton L. Hanson, USDA/ARS, Boise, ID; and G. L. Johnson and W. L. Frymire

Poster PDF (103.5 kB)

8:15 AM

5.2

Evaluation of Simulating Daily Air Temperature with the Normal Distribution: Implications for GEM

R. D. Harmel, USDA/ARS, Temple, TX; and C. W. Richardson, C. L. Hanson, and G. L. Johnson

8:30 AM

5.3

Teleconnection impacts on regional daily precipitation modeling

Tim Keefer, USDA/ARS, Tucson, AZ; and D. Goodrich

8:45 AM

5.4

Estimating Parameters for Characterizing Times Between Storms

James V. Bonta, USDA/ARS, Coshocton, OH; and G. Johnson

http://

Poster PDF (331.3 kB)

9:00 AM

5.5

Stochastic Daily Rainfall Generation in Southeast Arizona

Huey-hong Hsieh, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. Stone, P. Guertin, and D. D. Slack

9:15 AM

5.6

Season and spatial variations of serial and cross-correlation matrices used by stochastic weather generators

Justin T. Schoof, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and S. M. Robeson

Poster PDF (122.0 kB)

9:30 AM

5.7

Implementing quality control techniques for random number generators to improve stochastic weather generators: the CLIGEN experience.

Charles R. Meyer, USDA/ARS, West Lafayette, IN; and C. Renschler and R. C. Vining

http://horizon.nserl.purdue.edu/Cligen/

Poster PDF (294.7 kB)

4

Climate Variability and Forecast Strategies (Parallel with Session 5)

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Papers:

8:00 AM

4.1

Exploration of global teleconnection indices for long-range temperature forecasts

Robb M Randall, Air Force Institute of Technology, WPAFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther

8:15 AM

4.2

A seasonal climate forecast methodology for ITCZ associated rainfall over Eastern Africa

Ronald P. Lowther, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and J. F. Griffiths

8:30 AM

4.3

Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation(ENSO) On The IRAN South East Summer and Autumnal precipitation Anomalies

Mahamood Khosravi, Isfehan University and Sistan & Bluchestan University, Zahedan, Iran; and H. Ghayoor and M. R. Kaviani

8:45 AM

4.4

Multi-variate specification and prediction of rainfall over Devon and Cornwall, South West England

Ian D. Phillips, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and G. R. McGregor

9:00 AM

4.5

Climate Change Impacts in Europe—The Role of Extreme Temperature Events

Matthew T. J. Livermore, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom; and J. P. Palutikof, C. G. Bentham, and T. J. Osborn

Poster PDF (104.1 kB)

9:15 AM

4.6

Development of a discriminant analysis mixed precipitation (DAMP) forecast model for Mid-Atlantic winter storms

J. Dustin Hux, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and P. C. Knappenberger, P. J. Michaels, P. J. Stenger, H. D. Cobb III, and M. P. Rusnak

Poster PDF (165.2 kB)

9:30 AM

4.7

Experimental Real-time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting

Andrew W. Wood, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. P. Lettenmaier

9:45 AM

4.8

Designing an algorithm to predict the intensity of the severe weather season

Hugh J. Freestrom, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright -Patterson AFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther

Poster PDF (176.5 kB)

5

Aviation Operations Support: Part 2

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: Todd Glickman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Papers:

8:00 AM

5.1

An automated, operational Two Hour Convective Weather Forecast for the Corridor Integrated Weather

Robert A. Boldi, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and M. M. Wolfson, W. J. Dupree, R. J. Johnson Jr., K. E. Theriault, B. E. Forman, and C. A. Wilson

Poster PDF (80.7 kB)

8:15 AM

5.2

En Route Weather Depiction Benefits of the NEXRAD Vertically Integrated Liquid Water Product Utilized by the Corridor Integrated Weather System

Michael Robinson, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and J. E. Evans and B. A. Crowe

Poster PDF (140.9 kB)

8:30 AM

5.3

Short-Term (0-2hr) Automated Growth Forecast of Multi-cellular Convective Systems Associated with Large Scale, Daytime Forcing

Dan Megenhardt, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. K. Mueller

Poster PDF (727.1 kB)

8:45 AM

5.4

Tactical Weather Decision Support to Complement "Strategic" Traffic Flow Management for Convective Weather

James E. Evans, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA

Poster PDF (87.4 kB)

9:00 AM

5.5

Forecasting Convective Weather Using Multi-scale Detectors and Weather Classification—Enhancements to the MIT Lincoln Laboratory Terminal Convective Weather Forecast

William J. Dupree, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and M. M. Wolfson, R. J. Johnson Jr., K. E. Theriault, B. E. Forman, R. A. Boldi, and C. A. Wilson

9:15 AM

5.6

Trajectory-based performance assessment of aviation weather information

Laurence Vigeant-Langlois, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and R. J. Hansman Jr.

Poster PDF (266.2 kB)

9:30 AM

5.7

Local Aviation Weather Hazards of Atlantic Canada

Robert E. Robichaud, MSC, Gander, NF, Canada; and J. E. Mullock and K. A. Johnson

Poster PDF (186.0 kB)

9:45 AM

5.8

Assimilation of radar data for short term forecasting of snowband using a mesoscale model: simulated data experiments

Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Crook and R. M. Rasmussen

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

10:00 AM

5.9

Improved Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility

Stephen M. Leyton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

Poster PDF (62.3 kB)

10:15 AM

5.10

Visibility Forecasts from RUC20

Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/FSL and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and J. M. Brown

Poster PDF (305.0 kB)

10:30 AM

5.11

Radiation Fog: UPS Airlines Conceptual Models and Forecast Methods

Randy Baker, UPS Airlines, Louisville, KY; and J. Cramer and J. Peters

Poster PDF (138.3 kB)

10:45 AM

5.12

The Impact of Thunderstorms on Landing Traffic at Frankfurt Airport (Germany)—a Case Study

Thomas Hauf, Univ. of Hannover, Hannover, Germany; and M. Sasse

Poster PDF (30.5 kB)

11:00 AM

5.13

Aircraft Encounters with Thunderstorms in Enroute vs. Terminal Airspace above Memphis, Tennessee

Dale A. Rhoda, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and E. A. Kocab and M. L. Pawlak

Poster PDF (94.0 kB)

11:15 AM

5.14

Local Aviation Weather Hazards: How Meteorologists Learn from Pilots

John E. Mullock, MSC, Kelowna, BC, Canada; and K. A. Johnson

Poster PDF (296.1 kB)

11:30 AM

5.8A

Coffee Break

6

Climate Trend Analyses

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Greg Johnson, USDA/NRCS, National Water and Climate Center

Papers:

10:30 AM

6.1

100+ years of short-duration extreme climate events in the U.S.

Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and K. Andsager and D. R. Easterling

Poster PDF (36.1 kB)

10:45 AM

6.2

Rational analysis of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation

Patrick J. Michaels, Univ. of Virginia and Cato Institute, Charlottesville, VA; and P. C. Knappenberger, R. E. Davis, and O. W. Frauenfeld

Poster PDF (212.2 kB)

11:00 AM

6.3

Trends in the 1949–2000 northern hemisphere circumpolar vortex and climate change implications

Oliver W. Frauenfeld, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. E. Davis

Poster PDF (222.7 kB)

11:15 AM

6.4

The influence of extreme and non-extreme daily temperatures on diurnal temperature range trends.

Brian N. Belcher, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

Poster PDF (34.2 kB)

11:30 AM

6.5

Long Term Trends in the Spatial and Temporal Character of Precipitation Events in the Eastern United States.

Charles E. Konrad, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

Poster PDF (953.6 kB)

11:45 AM

6.6

Trends in Dense Fog Frequency in the Midwestern United States

Nancy E. Westcott, ISWS and Univ. of Illinois, Champaign, IL

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

Luncheon

Joint Session 1

Climatology and Aviation (Joint Session between the 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology and the 13th Conference on Applied Climatology)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 13th Conference on Applied Climatology )

Organizer: Mark Andrews, National Weather Service

Papers:

2:00 PM

J1.1

Jet Aircraft Contrails: Surface Temperature Variations During the Aircraft Groundings of Sept. 11–13, 2001

David J. Travis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Whitewater, WI; and A. M. Carleton and R. G. Lauritsen

2:15 PM

J1.2

A study of contrail spreading over the Great Lakes

David P. Duda, Hampton University, Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis and R. Palikonda

Poster PDF (593.3 kB)

2:30 PM

J1.3

Contrail climatology over the USA from MODIS and AVHRR data

Rabindra Palikonda, AS&M, Inc., Hampton, VA; and P. Minnis, P. K. Costulis, and D. P. Duda

2:45 PM

J1.4

Analysis of Lightning Cloud-to-Ground Flash Activity for National Aviation choke point region Studies

Thomas A. Seliga, USDOT/Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA; and D. A. Hazen and C. Schauland

Poster PDF (283.8 kB)

3:00 PM

J1.5

An inferred icing climatology—part I: estimation from pilot reports and surface conditions

Gregory S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and F. McDonough

Poster PDF (584.6 kB)

3:15 PM

J1.6

An Inferred Icing Climatology—Part II: Applying a Version of IIDA to 14-years of Coincident Soundings and Surface Observations

Ben C. Bernstein, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. McDonough

Poster PDF (294.7 kB)

3:30 PM

J1.7

An Inferred Icing Climatology—Part III: Icing AIRMETs and IIDA

Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Crandell and B. G. Brown

Poster PDF (661.2 kB)

3:45 PM

J1.8

Climatologies of Upper-Level Turbulence over the Continental U.S. and Oceans

Robert Sharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Wolff, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown

Poster PDF (287.2 kB)

4:00 PM

J1.9

An analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of ACARS data in support of the TAMDAR program

Brian Jamison, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger

Poster PDF (170.7 kB)

4:15 PM

J1.10

Climatology study of world airports in the context of wake vortex behaviour class

Paul Agnew, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and D. J. Hoad

Poster PDF (62.3 kB)

4:30 PM

J1.4A

Coffee Break

7

Climate Mapping and Analysis in 4 Dimensions (Parallel with Joint Session J1)

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Greorge Taylor, Oregon State Univ.

Papers:

2:00 PM

7.1

Climate division normals derived from topographically-sensitive climate grids

Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

http://

Poster PDF (151.3 kB)

2:15 PM

7.2

Development of a 103-Year High-Resolution Climate Data Set for the Conterminous United States

Wayne Gibson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and C. Daly, T. Kittel, D. Nychka, C. Johns, N. Rosenbloom, A. McNab, and G. Taylor

Poster PDF (17.3 kB)

2:30 PM

7.3

Using NDVI and elevation to improve precipitation mapping

Tamara G. Houston, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and A. L. McNab

Poster PDF (108.6 kB)

2:45 PM

7.4

Mapping the thermal climate of the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

Jonathan Smith, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and C. Daly

Poster PDF (8.7 kB)

3:00 PM

7.5

Development and analysis of fine-scale gridded climate data for Arizona and New Mexico

Andrew C. Comrie, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and D. P. Brown

http://geog.arizona.edu/~comrie/climas/anim.htm

Poster PDF (53.8 kB)

3:15 PM

7.6

Comparison of geo-referenced grids of 1961- 1990 Canadian temperature and precipitation normals.

Ewa J. Milewska, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and R. Hopkinson and A. Niitsoo

Poster PDF (302.1 kB)

7.7

Comparison of modeled climatologies from the Advanced Climate Modeling and Environmental Simulation System and COOP sites in Utah

3:45 PM

7.8

A new effort to update precipitation frequency maps for the United States

Christopher Daly, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

Poster PDF (9.3 kB)

4:00 PM

7.9

Use of spatial climate data sets in an optimum species selection system for the United States and China

Matthew Doggett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and C. Daly and D. Hannaway

4:15 PM

7.10

Mapping varietal potential for quality wines in Oregon using PRISM spatial climate data

Gregory V. Jones, Southern Oregon University, Ashland, OR; and P. Hille and H. E. Jones

4:30 PM

7.11

Mapping Erosive Potential Across the United States

Greg Johnson, USDA/NRCS, National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR; and J. Marron, C. Daly, G. Taylor, S. Hollinger, and J. Angel

Poster PDF (597.6 kB)

4:45 PM

7.12

Applying geographic visualization techniques to 4+-dimensional climate data

Colleen M. Garrity, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ

5:00 PM

7.6A

Coffee Break

6

Space Vehicle Operations Support (Parallel with Joint Session J1)

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: John Manobianco, ENSCO, Inc.

Papers:

2:00 PM

6.1

Modernization of the Space Launch Ranges Meteorological Subsystem Architecture

Timothy L. Wilfong, Lockheed Martin Mission Systems, Santa Maria, CA; and P. Conant, K. Winters, and C. Crosiar

http://

Poster PDF (102.7 kB)

2:15 PM

6.2

Kodiak Star: An Overview of Operational Weather Support at the Kodiak Launch Complex for Alaska's First Orbital Space Launch

James E. Sardonia, U.S. Air Force/45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and J. T. Madura

Poster PDF (156.5 kB)

2:30 PM

6.3

Lightning Protection at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Pedro J. Medelius, Dynacs, Inc., Kennedy Space Center, FL; and W. P. Roeder and J. Willingham

Poster PDF (71.3 kB)

2:45 PM

6.4

Wind profile measurements and forecasts at the Guiana Space Center, Europe's Spaceport

Isabelle J. Donet, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, Kourou, French Guiana

3:00 PM

6.5

Boundary Layer Influences On Forecasting Toxic Corridors At The Eastern Range In Support Of Space Launch

Billie F. Boyd, U.S. Air Force/45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and D. E. Harms, K. A. Winters, P. N. Rosati, C. R. Parks, and K. B. Overbeck

Poster PDF (324.2 kB)

3:15 PM

6.6

Observations of the Decay of Electric Fields, Reflectivity and Microphysics in Anvils near Kennedy Space Center

J. E. Dye, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Defer, C. A. Grainger, M. Bateman, and D. Mach

3:30 PM

6.7

Verification of world-wide Space Station emergency landing forecasts: challenges and results

Timothy D. Oram, NOAA/NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group and Cimarron, Houston, TX

Poster PDF (68.5 kB)

3:45 PM

6.8

Natural Atmospheric Environment Model Development for the National Aeronautics Space Administration’s Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

Barry C. Roberts, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and G. Overbey, F. Leahy, and G. W. Batts

4:00 PM

6.9

Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models

Dale L. Johnson, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and B. C. Roberts and W. W. Vaughan

4:15 PM

6.10

Atmospheric Conditions of Stratospheric Mountain Waves: Soaring the Perlan Aircraft to 30 km

Edward H. Teets Jr., NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA; and E. J. Carter

Poster PDF (73.1 kB)

4:30 PM

6.11

Meteorological Support and Modeling for the NASA X-43A Hypersonic Research Vehicle

Elizabeth J. Carter, Firnspiegel LLC, Kings Beach, CA; and E. H. Teets Jr.

http://weatherextreme.com

Poster PDF (514.4 kB)

6.12

Comparing Aviation Weather Hazards Using the BFM and MM5

5:00 PM

6.4A

Coffee Break

Sessions end for the day

WED 15 MAY

7

Sensors and Systems

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: Timothy L. Wilfong, Lockheed Martin Mission Systems

Papers:

8:00 AM

7.1

Update on the FAA’s Weather and Radar Processor (WARP)

Jay Johnson, FAA, Washington, DC; and S. Walden, J. Stobie, and R. Graff

http://www.faa.gov/aua/ipt_prod/weather/warp/

Poster PDF (83.1 kB)

8:15 AM

7.2

A Web-based Display and Access Point to the FAA's Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS)

Steven Maloney, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and R. Hallowell, N. DeLosa, D. Eberle, L. Owirka, L. Kurzwell, and D. Reiser

Poster PDF (188.2 kB)

8:30 AM

7.3

The Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)

James E. Evans, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and K. Carusone, M. Wolfson, B. Crowe, D. Meyer, and D. Klingle-Wilson

Poster PDF (415.9 kB)

8:45 AM

7.4

The Performance of the Model System NOWVIV during the Field Campaign WakeOP

Michael Frech, Institute fur Physik de Atmosohare & German Aerospace Center (DLR), Wessling, Germany; and A. Tafferner

Poster PDF (87.6 kB)

9:00 AM

7.5

NOAA/ETL's polarization radar-microwave radiometer system for detecting in-flight icing conditions—progress in the design and development of GRIDS

Timothy L. Schneider, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. F. Reinking, W. C. Campbell, K. A. Clark, J. S. Gibson, D. A. Hazen, S. Y. Matrosov, K. P. Moran, and M. J. Post

Poster PDF (126.0 kB)

9:15 AM

7.6

Evaluation of a remote icing detection technique using X-, Ka-, and W-band radar and microwave radiometer observations

John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vivekanandan and G. Zhang

Poster PDF (100.0 kB)

9:30 AM

7.7

Mt. Washington Icing Sensors Project (MWISP) Results

Charles C. Ryerson, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Cold Regions Research & Engineering Lab., Hanover, NH; and G. G. Koenig, M. K. Politovich, and A. L. Reehorst

Poster PDF (122.9 kB)

9:45 AM

7.8

Cloud/hydrometeor initialization in the 20-km RUC using GOES and radar data

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and D. Kim and J. M. Brown

Poster PDF (339.0 kB)

10:00 AM

7.9

Evaluation of an airborne radar turbulence detection algorithm

Larry B. Cornman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Gerding, G. Meymaris, and J. Williams

Poster PDF (138.4 kB)

10:15 AM

7.10

An analysis of the wind vector error estimate for the Automated Meteorological Profiling System's Low Resolution Flight Element as compared to the High Resolution Flight Element

B. Glenn Overbey, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and F. B. Leahy and B. C. Roberts

7.11

An Analysis of the Thermodynamic Operational Comparability Between the Automated Meteorological Profiling System’s Low Resolution Flight Element and the Meteorological Sounding System

10:45 AM

7.12

Sensitivity of Ground-based Radiometric Observations to Atmospheric Temperature Inversions

Komandur E. Rangarajan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vivekanandan

Poster PDF (67.3 kB)

11:00 AM

7.13

Lightning detection and ranging (LDAR II): results from Global Atmospherics, Inc. Dallas-Fort Worth research network

Nicholas W. S. Demetriades, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and M. J. Murphy and R. L. Holle

11:15 AM

7.8A

Coffee Break

8

Drought Assessment and Prediction

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Glen Conner, Western Kentucky Univ.

Papers:

8:00 AM

8.1

Measured Soil Moisture during the 1999–2000 Drought in Illinois

James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and R. W. Scott

Poster PDF (44.8 kB)

8:15 AM

8.2

Monitoring droughts with improved drought index resolution

Michael J. Hayes, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. D. Svoboda, W. J. Waltman, S. Goddard, and K. G. Hubbard

http://nadss.unl.edu

Poster PDF (224.4 kB)

8:30 AM

8.3

The quality assurance and dissemination of soil moisture data from the Oklahoma Mesonet

Gary D. McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (254.6 kB)

8:45 AM

8.4

A Soil Moisture Analysis of the Drought Conditions using the Oklahoma Mesonet

Bradley G. Illston, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara

Poster PDF (758.2 kB)

9:00 AM

8.5

The value of real-time mesoscale observations to early recognition and rapid response to short-term drought

Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and H. L. Johnson

Poster PDF (375.3 kB)

9:15 AM

8.6

Three years and counting: What’s new with the Drought Monitor?

Mark D. Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center/Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. J. Hayes and R. J. Tinker

http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/

Poster PDF (69.3 kB)

9:30 AM

8.7

Exploring moisture indices for characterizing drought in Vermont

Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT

http://www.uvm.edu/~ldupigny/sc/drought_vermont.html

Poster PDF (74.2 kB)

9:45 AM

8.8

Trends in North Carolina evapotranspiration and links with water availability

Peter J. Robinson, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC

Poster PDF (187.1 kB)

10:00 AM

8.9

Drought and Impact Disconnect: The Midwest Drought of 1999-2000

Michael A. Palecki, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and S. D. Hilberg

Poster PDF (221.2 kB)

10:15 AM

8.10

Drought Risk in Agriculture

Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University, Ames, IA

Poster PDF (38.4 kB)

10:30 AM

8.11

European drought climatology and prediction using the standardised precipitation index

Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes, University College London, Dorking, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

10:45 AM

8.12

Climate Stability in the Great Plains

John Harrington Jr., Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS; and M. J. Wood

Poster PDF (74.0 kB)

11:00 AM

8.13

A climatological assessment of major 20th century drought in southern Ontario, Canada

Joan M. Klaassen, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada

Poster PDF (214.6 kB)

11:15 AM

8.14

Associations between the Palmer Drought Index and various atmospheric and oceanic indices

Douglas Le Comte, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

11:30 AM

8.8A

Coffee Break

Lunch Break

9

Forecast Evaluation/Verification (Parallel with Session 8)

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: Barry Clay Roberts, NASA

Papers:

1:15 PM

9.1

Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm 2001 Meteorological Evaluation

Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. Sims

Poster PDF (91.7 kB)

1:30 PM

9.2

Mountain Wave Activity & Turbulence—Aviation Forecasts & Avoidance

Thomas H. Fahey III, Northwest Airlines, Inc., Minneapolis, MN; and M. Pfleiderer and R. Sharman

1:45 PM

9.3

Verification Results of a Turbulence Index Applied to Low-Levels of the Atmosphere

Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and I. Gotchel, C. M. Stock, J. E. Passner, and D. I. Knapp

Poster PDF (309.1 kB)

9.4

Developing and Verifying Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) Forecasting Indices in Korea

2:15 PM

9.5

Verification of the In-flight Icing Diagnostic Algorithm (IIDA)

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Mahoney and T. L. Fowler

Poster PDF (88.0 kB)

2:30 PM

9.6

Analysis of problematic IIDA icing diagnoses in the Pacific Northwest

Michael Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. C. Bernstein

Poster PDF (319.5 kB)

2:45 PM

9.7

Evaluation of low-level aircraft icing forcasts from Mt. Washington summit observations

Rebecca J. Stanley, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and J. P. Koermer and C. C. Ryerson

Poster PDF (124.7 kB)

3:00 PM

9.8

The real-time verification system (RTVS) and its application to aviation weather forecasting

Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Henderson, B. G. Brown, J. E. Hart, A. Loughe, C. Fischer, and B. Sigren

Poster PDF (88.6 kB)

3:15 PM

9.9

Verification of RUC Surface Forecasts at Major U.S. Airport Hubs

Barry E. Schwartz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

Poster PDF (219.8 kB)

9.10

Status of RUC convection forecasts in the 3-6h range

3:45 PM

9.11

A Comparison of Boundary Layer Wind Estimation Techniques

Rich DeLaura, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and R. E. Cole, N. A. Crook, and J. Sun

Poster PDF (110.7 kB)

4:00 PM

9.12

The value in probabilities for aerodrome forecasts

Ross Keith, Bureau of Meteorology and James Cook Univ., Townsville, Australia; and I. Mason

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/inside/AMS_draft_paper.doc

Poster PDF (78.1 kB)

4:15 PM

9.13

TAF Verification

Glen R. Harris, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

4:30 PM

9.14

TAF quality improvement (TQI) efforts in Canada

Alister Ling, MSC, Edmonton, AB, Canada

Poster PDF (46.1 kB)

4:45 PM

9.15

Uses of Real-Time Verification to Improve Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts

David R. Manning, NOAA/NWSFO, Tulsa, OK; and S. A. Amburn and J. M. Frederick

Poster PDF (2.0 MB)

5:00 PM

9.16

Statistical Measures of the Skill of Marine Stratus Forecast Models

F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO

5:15 PM

9.7A

Coffee Break

8

Sensors and Systems: Part 2 (Parallel with Session 9)

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: L. Jack Ehernberger, NASA

Papers:

1:15 PM

8.1

Juneau Airport Wind System (JAWS), A progress report

Cynthia Schauland, FAA, Washington, DC; and D. Strawbridge, D. Piccione, D. Bryan, C. Turner, and D. Hedenberg

1:30 PM

8.2

An assessment of ice-free wind sensors for the Juneau Airport Wind System

Thomas Carty, FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ; and M. McKinney and F. Law

Poster PDF (399.0 kB)

1:45 PM

8.3

Implementation of a Doppler Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) System for the Hong Kong International Airport

Chi Ming Shun, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong; and S. Y. Lau

Poster PDF (86.9 kB)

2:00 PM

8.4

Flight Conditions Encountered by the 2-micron ACLAIM Lidar during CAMEX IV

L. J. Ehernberger, NASA, Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA; and R. K. Bogue, E. H. Teets, G. W. Grew, P. Brockman, I. O. Clark, P. Gatt, S. C. Tucker, C. Ashburn, and C. Rowland

2:15 PM

8.5

Effects of Scattering Due to Ice Particles on Measurement of Down-Welling Radiation Observation of K and V-band Radiometers

J. Vivekanandan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Zhang

Poster PDF (143.0 kB)

2:30 PM

8.6

The Hotplate Snowgauge

Roy M. Rasmussen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Hallett, R. Purcell, J. Cole, and M. Tryhane

Poster PDF (204.1 kB)

2:45 PM

8.7

Progress towards Drizzle Detection on ASOS

Charles G. Wade, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (138.1 kB)

3:00 PM

8.8

Automatic detection of volcanic ash using Meteosat

Tania R. Scott, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. A. McDonald and R. W. Lunnon

Poster PDF (161.7 kB)

3:15 PM

8.9

Detection of airborne volcanic ash with GOES: issues and prospects for the coming decade

Gary P. Ellrod, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA, Camp Springs, MD

3:30 PM

8.10

Applying FX Connect to the Prototype Aviation Collaborative Effort at the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center

Dennis M. Rodgers, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. Amis

Poster PDF (83.5 kB)

3:45 PM

8.11

Demonstration of the Marine Stratus Forecast (MSF) Product

Cynthia B. Fidalgo, FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center, Atlantic City, NJ; and D. L. Sims, S. L. McGettigan, and J. Weinrich

Poster PDF (56.2 kB)

4:00 PM

8.12

Computer Based Training for Issuing Lightning Advisories at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station / Kennedy Space Center

William P. Roeder, U.S. Air Force/45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and S. C. Jacobs, J. E. Sardonia, J. W. Weems, C. S. Pinder, and M. S. Christie

Poster PDF (509.4 kB)

4:15 PM

8.13

Detection of deep convection around the globe

Frederick R. Mosher, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO

http://aviationweather.noaa.gov

Poster PDF (351.5 kB)

4:30 PM

8.14

Update on the NCAR Thunderstorm Nowcast system

Cynthia Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Saxen, R. Roberts, and J. Wilson

Poster PDF (391.3 kB)

4:45 PM

8.15

Rapid update of the National Severe Storms Laboratory severe weather detection algorithms

Christopher W. Porter, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith

Poster PDF (14.6 kB)

5:00 PM

8.7A

Coffee Break

9

Climate Impacts on Water Resources

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Mark Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center

Papers:

1:30 PM

9.1

Influence of the Pacific Ocean on variations in Northwest climate and water resources

Philip W Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet and D. P. Lettenmaier

1:45 PM

9.2

Mann-Whitney U analysis of annual streamflow over the central United States: 1939-1998

Steven A. Mauget, USDA/ARS, Lubbock, TX

2:00 PM

9.3

Regional climate change, its possible influences on the Northwest's water resources, and some early policy responses

Philip W. Mote, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. F. Hamlet, D. P. Lettenmaier, and E. L. Miles

2:15 PM

9.4

The effect of various precipitation downscaling methods on the simulation of streamflow in the Yakima River

Eric P. Salathé Jr., JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~salathe/downscale.html

Poster PDF (390.3 kB)

2:30 PM

9.5

Customized On-line Climate Forecast Evaluations: A Tool for Improving Water and Watershed Management

Holly C. Hartmann, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and T. C. Pagano and S. Sorooshian

Coffee Break

10

Micro- and Mesoscale Climatology (Parallel with Session 11)

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Dev Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ.

Papers:

3:15 PM

10.1

Climatologic Evaluation and Modification of the Classic Mesoscale Predictive Lake-Breeze Index

Neil F. Laird, Hobart & William Smith Colleges and Univ. of Illinois, Geneva, NY

Poster PDF (463.5 kB)

3:30 PM

10.2

Effect of Land-use Induced Mesoscale Variability on the Climate of the Carolinas

Sethu Raman, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. Sims, D. D. S. Niyogi, R. Elliss, and R. C. Gilliam

Poster PDF (81.1 kB)

3:45 PM

10.3

Land use change and modification of near surface temperature records in the Northern Great Plains: verification of modeling results

Rezaul Mahmood, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and K. G. Hubbard and C. Carlson

4:00 PM

10.4

Sensitivity of soil moisture and evapotranspiration to soils and land use heterogeneity

Rezaul Mahmood, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY; and K. G. Hubbard

4:15 PM

10.5

The Mesoscale Climate Impact of an August 1994 MCS Event in Oklahoma

Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and K. C. Crawford

Poster PDF (541.8 kB)

4:30 PM

10.6

THE QUOTIDIAN CYCLE OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM PECAN TREES

Ted W. Sammis, New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces, NM; and J. G. Mexal

4:45 PM

10.7

Assessing the potential impact of aerosol loading on the terrestrial carbon exchanges

Dev dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and C. Crabbe, V. K. Saxena, S. Raman, K. Wilson, K. Alapaty, R. A. Pielke Sr., and Y. Xue

Poster PDF (80.9 kB)

11

Advances in Climate Services (Parallel with Session 10)

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Phil Pasteris, USDA/NRCS, National Water and Climate Survey

Papers:

3:15 PM

11.1

The State Climatologist Program and a National Climate Services Initiative

Mark A. Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (33.9 kB)

3:30 PM

11.2

The Crucial Role of the State Climatologist in National Climate Services

James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and G. Taylor, R. Pielke Sr., J. Grymes, and D. Stooksbury

3:45 PM

11.3

Progress toward regional integrated climate services

Kelly T. Redmond, DRI, Reno, NV

4:00 PM

11.4

Trends in the Use of Climate Data: A Regional Center Perspective

Steven D. Hilberg, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and J. D. Burroughs

Poster PDF (99.3 kB)

4:15 PM

11.5

An Objective tool for pricing degree day weather options

Douglas A. Stewart, Environmental Dynamics Research, Inc., Lantana, FL

4:30 PM

11.6

Internet-Based Climate Analysis Software Applications

Phillip A. Pasteris, USDA-NRCS, National Water and Climate Center, Portland, OR; and K. L. Eggleston and W. Noon

Poster PDF (308.4 kB)

4:45 PM

11.7

"Colorado Climate" A Magazine Dedicated To Applied Climatology

Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and O. A. Bliss and R. A. Pielke Sr.

Poster PDF (73.8 kB)

5:00 PM

11.8

Long-range climate and streamflow forecasts: bridging the gaps between science and applications

Alan F. Hamlet, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. Mote, N. Mantua, A. Wood, D. P. Lettenmaier, M. Hahn, R. Palmer, and K. Westrick

Sessions End for the day

Sessions end for the day

THUR 16 MAY

10

Turbulence and Wind Sheer

Sponsor: 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizer: Michael S. Gremillion, U.S. Air Force

Papers:

8:00 AM

10.1

Automated Wind Shear Alerts for Aviation—Strengths & Weaknesses

Thomas H. Fahey III, Northwest Airlines, Inc., Minneapolis, MN; and M. A. Isaminger and A. VanGerpen

8:15 AM

10.2

Results from the NCAR Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm (ITFA) for predicting upper level clear-air turbulence

Robert Sharman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Tebaldi, J. Wolff, and G. Wiener

Poster PDF (211.0 kB)

8:30 AM

10.3

A Real-Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of aviation turbulence environments

M. L. Kaplan, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, North Carolina; and J. J. Charney, K. T. Waight III, Y. L. Lin, K. M. Lutz, A. W. Huffman, and J. D. Cetola

Poster PDF (176.6 kB)

8:45 AM

10.4

Predicting Clear-Air Turbulence from Diagnosis of Unbalanced Flow

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Caracena

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

9:00 AM

10.5

A modeling investigation of near-cloud turbulence.

Todd P. Lane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Sharman and T. L. Clark

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

9:15 AM

10.6

A case study of a high altitude turbulence outbreak

Paul C. Fike, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and S. R. Silberberg

9:30 AM

10.7

Turbulence associated with mountain-wave induced rotors

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA

9:45 AM

10.8

Convectively induced turbulence encountered during NASA's fall-2000 flight experiments

David W. Hamilton, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and F. H. Proctor

Poster PDF (734.1 kB)

10:00 AM

10.9

Low Altitude Buoyancy Wave Turbulence—a Potential Aviation Safety Threat

Paul E. Bieringer, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA

Poster PDF (207.0 kB)

10:15 AM

10.10

An Improved Gust Front Detection Capability for the ASR-9 WSP

Seth Troxel, MIT Lincoln Lab., Lexington, MA; and B. Frankel, B. Echels, and C. Rolfe

Poster PDF (108.7 kB)

10:30 AM

10.11

Case studies of turbulence and vertical motion experienced by research aircraft during MAP-SOP South Foehn cases

Petra Malcher, Univ. of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Tirol, Austria; and H. Puempel and I. Vergeiner

Poster PDF (676.8 kB)

10:45 AM

10.12

Application and Verification of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) Forecast Indices in Korea

Young-Gon Lee, MRI, Seoul, Korea; and B. C. Choi, R. Sharman, and G. Wiener

http://

Poster PDF (337.2 kB)

11:00 AM

10.13

Operational Experience with TDWR/LLWAS-NE Integration at the Dallas, TX International Airport (DFW)

David W. Miller, MIT Lincoln Lab., Dallas, TX; and B. E. Crowe and J. D. Shaw

Poster PDF (293.5 kB)

11:15 AM

10.8A

Coffee Break

12

Applications of Climate Data

Sponsor: 13th Conference on Applied Climatology

Organizer: Nolan Doesken, Colorado State Univ.

Papers:

8:00 AM

12.1

An Investigation of Changes in the Length of the Growing Season in Oregon

George H. Taylor, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and N. Parazoo

Poster PDF (30.1 kB)

8:15 AM

12.2

Recent climatic trends and changes in potato late blight disease risk in the Upper Great Lakes region

Kathleen M. Baker, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and J. A. Andresen and W. W. Kirk

Poster PDF (179.2 kB)

8:30 AM

12.3

Testing Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability: A Case Study from the Sulphur Springs Valley, Arizona

Colin Thor West, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Vasquez-Leon and T. J. Finan

Poster PDF (94.1 kB)

8:45 AM

12.4

Monitoring climate for wildfire, prescribed fire, and fire use

Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and B. L. Hall

9:00 AM

12.5

Seasonality of temperature and ischaemic heart disease mortality in five English Counties

Glenn R. McGregor, Univ. of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and H. Watkin

9:15 AM

12.6

Using a synoptic classification scheme to assess rural-urban differences in heat vulnerability

Scott C. Sheridan, Kent State University, Kent, OH

Poster PDF (599.5 kB)

9:30 AM

12.7

On seasonal differences in weather-related mortality trends in the United States

Robert E. Davis, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and P. C. Knappenberger, W. M. Novicoff, and P. J. Michaels

Poster PDF (283.2 kB)

9:45 AM

12.8

Integrating climate information into the natural gas purchasing decision: Complex issues facing school district administrators

David Changnon, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL

10:00 AM

12.9

Reanalysis and the identification of wind energy climates

Marc Schwartz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

10:15 AM

12.10

Estimation of U.S. design temperatures using daily maximum and minimum temperatures

Kenneth E. Kunkel, ISWS, Champaign, IL

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

10:30 AM

12.11

Climatic probabilities of snow drift loading on gable roofs

Arthur T. DeGaetano, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and M. J. O'Rourke

Poster PDF (590.8 kB)

10:45 AM

12.12

Objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic using NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF Reanalyses: Implications for the UK Insurance Industry.

Clair Hanson, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom; and J. Palutikof, A. Jones, and T. Holt

Poster PDF (70.5 kB)

11:00 AM

12.13

Climate Impact Indices for the Economy Utilized by NCDC's Climate Monitoring Branch

Richard R. Heim Jr., NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. H. Lawrimore, D. B. Wuertz, A. M. Waple, and T. W. R. Wallis

Poster PDF (457.2 kB)

11:15 AM

12.8A

Coffee Break

Conference Ends

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