Wednesday, 15 May 2002: 2:30 PM
Customized On-line Climate Forecast Evaluations: A Tool for Improving Water and Watershed Management
Extensive interactions with water resources and watershed managers have
revealed that decision makers have varying perspectives about climatic
variability and opportunities for using climate forecasts to inform
resource management decisions. In many cases, uncertainty about the
accuracy of climate forecasts presents a formidable barrier to more
effective use of forecast products. In addition, improper interpretation
of climate forecasts can impede effective use of even the highest quality
forecasts.
In response, we developed a forecast evaluation framework that provides
consistency in assessing different forecast products, in ways that that
allow individuals to use results at the level they are capable of
understanding, while offering opportunity for shifting to more
sophisticated criteria. Feedback from water and watershed managers
confirmed the appropriateness of framework components.
We have incorporated the framework in an on-line forecast evaluation
tool that users can customize to consider the regions, lead times,
seasons, and criteria relevant to their specific decision making
situations. It is presently implemented to evaluate the seasonal
temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the National Weather
Service Climate Prediction Center. The tool also allows users to test
their forecast interpretation skills, efficiently monitor the time
evolution of the climate forecasts and subsequent observations, and place
the forecasts in the context of recent and historical observations.
Ongoing forecast evaluations can counter poor perceptions of climate
forecasts that derive from misperceptions about the forecasts and lack of
demonstrated forecast quality in ways meaningful to potential users.
Targeted evaluation of forecasts allows users to focus on results not
clouded by forecasts they consider irrelevant; forecast evaluation
results that are targeted for specific user requirements provide
different assessments of forecast quality. The demonstrated skill, or
lack thereof, provides a basis for exploring, with forecast users,
forecast performance implications from a context of experience rather
than conjecture. We have begun to work with forecast users to determine
essential forecast attributes; requisite performance thresholds;
relationships among forecast quality, utility, and value; and the
potential utility and value of forecast improvements.
Supplementary URL: