Wednesday, 15 May 2002: 2:00 PM
Regional climate change, its possible influences on the Northwest's water resources, and some early policy responses
Simulations of climate by global climate models provide one basis for
examining possible future climate change in a region. Despite the
coarseness of the global models' resolution, important aspects of
regionally averaged climate are well simulated, including temperature, the
sharp seasonality of the region's precipitation, and the observed 20th
century warming of 1.5F. We use output from several climate models to
drive the VIC macro-scale hydrology model, which has been implemented over
the Columbia River Basin at 1/8 degree horizontal resolution. The range
of climate scenarios from the climate models provides a range of possible
future streamflows for selected decades, underscoring and quantifying the
risk that a warmer climate poses to the region's snowpack and summer water
supply. A reservoir operations model (ColSim), can be used with VIC
output to quantify the impacts of climate change on the reliability of a
wide range of system objectives, and shows that even with fairly dramatic
climate changes, one or two top-priority objectives can be protected, but
at significant cost to other objectives. The UW Climate Impacts Group has
encouraged water resource managers and policymakers to consider climate
change in long-term plans, and has had some early successes.
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