Wednesday, 15 May 2002: 1:30 PM
Influence of the Pacific Ocean on variations in Northwest climate and water resources
The Northwest's climate and water resources respond to variations in the
atmosphere/ocean system over the Pacific Ocean. Variations in the tropics
(El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO) and in midlatitudes (Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, or PDO) have comparable influence on the Northwest,
with warm-phase ENSO or warm-phase PDO years being more likely to see
above-average temperatures, and below-average precipitation, snowpack,
streamflow, and likelihood of flooding. For example, the Columbia River's
naturalized flow at The Dalles is, on average, 21% higher during
cool-phase ENSO years than during warm-phase ENSO years, and is 44% higher
during years when both ENSO and PDO are in cool phase than when both are
in warm phase. This apparent reinforcement occurs even though ENSO and
PDO are not statistically independent. Taken together, ENSO and PDO are
important measures in forecasting regional water resources and are gaining
recognition in water resources forecasting efforts.
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