Tuesday, 14 May 2002: 9:15 AM
Trajectory-based performance assessment of aviation weather information
For pilots, airline dispatchers and air traffic controllers, weather-related aviation decision-making involves making decisions about the routing of aircraft with regard to a spatially and temporally varying weather field. The information needs of these decision-makers with regard to a specific flight are centered on relevant four-dimensional flight trajectories. Traditional methods to evaluate the performance of weather information and forecasts involves metrics based on the spatial performance of the forecast over an area and a time horizon that may not accurately measure information quality from the perspective of the information users. In order to guide the development of aviation weather information, it is desired to explore trajectory-centric weather information performance characteristics. It is expected that these performance criteria will guide the development of weather information that meteorologists provide to the operational community. The current paper presents a preliminary analysis and implications for aviation weather forecasting.