Wednesday, 15 May 2002: 4:45 PM
Uses of Real-Time Verification to Improve Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts
The National Weather Service produces Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) for hundreds of airports across the country four times daily. These forecasts provide critical information to pilots, air traffic planners, air traffic controllers, and other ground personnel. Using real-time verification (TafTrack, Frederick and Amburn, 2000) can provide forecasters an opportunity to identify biases from both MOS (Model Output Statistics) forecasts and TAFs, with the ultimate goal being more accurate TAFs. Using real-time verification, these biases can be determined for periods of days, weeks and seasons, and also for MOS and groups or individual forecasters. Using output from TafTrack, suggestions for how real-time verification can be used to help improve aviation forecasts will be presented, along with specific verification examples from data collected at WFO Tulsa.