13th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Wednesday, 15 May 2002: 5:00 PM
Statistical Measures of the Skill of Marine Stratus Forecast Models
F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Statistical measures of forecast performance have the advantage of being subjective and the disadvantage of presenting a narrow viewpoint. We introduce a family of statistical measures of forecast skill, mostly refinements of the standard measures, and apply them to the automated forecasts, which have been developed for the SFO Marine Stratus Project. These adapted measures have been selected to reflect the skill of achieving specific forecast objectives. The discussion includes these skill measures and their relationship to forecast objectives, and a discussion of the capabilities of the automated forecasts, as reflected by these measures.

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