13th Conference on Applied Climatology and the 10th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Monday, 13 May 2002
Use of Probabilistic Convective Forecasts in Traffic Flow Management Decision Support
Stephen M. Zobell, The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA; and C. G. Ball and J. E. Sherry
Convective weather forecasts beyond two hours are typically probabilistic. They define geographic regions and forecast percent coverage and percent probability of occurrence within the region. The Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP), which is currently used for Traffic Flow Management (TFM), uses this format to provide forecasts of convective weather up to 6 hours into the future. MITRE's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) is investigating whether probabilistic forecasts can be used in TFM decision support concepts to help plan for weather disruptions. CAASD has already developed decision support concepts for using deterministic forecasts that have a one or two hour time horizon, but decisions beyond two hours will have to rely on probabilistic forecasts. One possibility is to develop techniques to translate probabilistic forecasts into capacity reduced areas, which indicate that a region will be able to accommodate fewer flights in the future than is normally possible. This could then be used to help determine how many flight plans will have to be modified to reduce the demand in each capacity reduced area, and to recommend candidate flight plan modifications. The inaccuracies of weather forecasts as well as the inaccuracies in predicted aircraft traffic in this 2-6 hour forecast period will have to be considered in making these determinations. This paper is a discussion of the developing concepts for TFM decision support using probabilistic convective forecasts.

The contents of this abstract reflect the views of the authors and The MITRE Corporation and do not necessarily reflect the views of the FAA or the DOT. Neither the Federal Aviation Administration nor the Department of Transportation makes any warranty or guarantee, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of these views.

@2001 The MITRE Corporation

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