14th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics

Thursday, 12 June 2003
Potential Vorticity Intrusion Index and Climate Variability of Surface Temperature
Ming Cai, University of Maryland, College Park, MD
This paper proposes a potential vorticity intrusion index (denoted as PVI) as an alternative diagnostic tool to study the observed climate variability/trend of the surface temperature. The PVI index is defined as the percentage area of upper lever PV intrusion in the extratropics at any given time. Abundance (shortage) of extreme cold surface air temperature episodes in high latitudes coincides with a high (low) PVI index. The interannual variability of the PVI index exhibits a strong QBO- like signal. The high (low) PVI index prevails when the equatorial zonal mean zonal wind at 50 hPa is easterly (westerly). The probability distribution map of PV intrusion activities shows a shift of the preferred regions of frontogenesis from the oceans to the continents when the PVI index is high. This explains directly why more extreme cold events are observed over the northern Eurasian and Northern America continents when the PVI index is high or the QBO is in the easterly phase

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