The SLAT (index) as an indicator of vertical propagating mountain waves using WRF 15km data, and its potential as a turbulence forecast product

It is believed that manifestations of Vertically Propagating Mountain Waves (VPMW) are seen in the Air Force Weather Agency's 15 km Weather Research Forecast atmospheric model. VPMW are believed to be a significant cause of severe aviation turbulence events. In the immediate vicinity of mountain ranges, with upper tropospheric jets and troughs in the vicinity, 15-km WRF temperature and wind structures believed to be indicative of VPMW are seen in both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The temperature structure in the stratosphere has been published as the Stratospheric Layer Advanced Turbulence (SLAT “index”). SLAT has informally been shown to correspond to upper level turbulence. Maps of SLAT are used operationally in Air Force Weather as a predictor of turbulence. Should SLAT be shown to be a valid indicator of VPMW, detailed 3-hourly forecast maps of SLAT would be useful in pinpointing both the locations and times of suspect VPWM events, allowing safer and more efficient air travel.