Semi-empirical methods for the prediction of mountain wave turbulence

Breaking topographically-induced gravity waves or mountain waves are a major source of turbulence encounters by commercial and general aviation aircraft. An empirical method for forecasting mountain wave-induced turbulence (MWT) over the continental U. S. is presented which uses a combination of MWT seasonal and regional climatologies, terrain characteristics, and turbulence diagnostics derived from operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output, such as the WRFRR. Accuracy assessments are provided through comparisons to thousands of pilot reports of turbulence from the mid-troposphere to the lower stratosphere over mountainous areas in the U.S. where the report specifically indicated that the turbulence was mountain-wave related. This algorithm is expected to become part of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance v. 3 (GTG3) system for deployment as part of NextGen IOC.

This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.