Validation and forecast exercises using the SATCAST 0-1 hour convective initiation nowcasting algorithm at UAHuntsville

A challenging problem today, particularly for the aviation industry, is our current lack of ability to accurately forecast the location and time of convective initiation (CI) events, especially in the 0-8 hour timeframe over which most domestic flights occur. Such events are one of the primary reasons for costly delays to airlines, and, subsequently for the general public who frequent those airlines. Current storm forecast products used in operations today are very limited, thus hindering the effectiveness of most aviation weather decision support systems.

Towards alleviating this nowcasting problem, the development of the SATellite Convection AnalysiS and Tracking (SATCAST) system has been developed by researchers at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville). The original version of SATCAST utilized imager data from various channels on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to infer various characteristics about early stage convection, such as cloud-top height, cloud-top glaciation, and updraft strength. This was done via a single pixel-based tracking methodology, this system was able to monitor convective cloud growth through time, and determine which cloud elements might be associated with the production of heavy rainfall within the next 0-1 hours (Mecikalski and Bedka, 2006). Presented here are the details on validation and enhancement to an updated variation of SATCAST, known as “SATCAST Version 2” (SATCAST_v2). The main aspects to this version is a change to an “object-tracking” based methodology, which provides superior tracking capabilities of interesting convective cloud “objects”, improved nighttime nowcasting abilities, and therefore improved abilities to monitor the characteristics of convective development in its early stages.

SATCAST_v2 was unveiled in the spring of 2010, will be tested at the GOES-R Proving Ground at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK in 2011 as well. Discussion of the overall SATCAST_v2 methodology, forecast skill (via contingency table results), and results/feedback from its use at SPC will be presented. Also discussed will be how SATCAST_v2 will be used within the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) as part of the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) program.