Application of Multi-platform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis in Aerodrome Wind Forecasting during the Passage of Tropical Cyclones

Study of past cases of significant flight delay and/or flight cancellation at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) indicated that high crosswind brought by tropical cyclones (TCs) stands out as the top weather factor causing airport disruptions. To provide aviation forecasters with enhanced objective guidance for wind strength and crosswind forecasts for the next day or so, a TC empirical model using multiple regression method has been built to generate wind forecast for HKIA based on the wind structure derived from the multi-platform satellite TC wind analysis of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the HKO's TC forecast track and intensity.

The empirical model uses TC intensity, latitude, speed of movement and radius of maximum sustained wind as the predictors to forecast radii of high winds (strong/gale/storm/hurricane as appropriate) in the four quadrants of the TC. Coupled with the HKO's TC forecast track, the model is capable of generating forecasts of the wind strength and crosswind at HKIA during the passage of the TC.

This paper presents the methodology of the TC empirical model and the verification results for 2009-2010.