An ensemble based approach to simulate the uncertainty in BP oil spill using a high resolution mesoscale coupled model

The coupled WRF-ROMS is used to simulate the spread of particle trajectories during the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The coupled WRF-ROMS is run at 3 km resolution. The initial and boundary conditions are obtained from NCEP North American Mesoscale 12 km data set. The bred vector technique is used to generate an ensemble of ocean currents over a course of 3 months. The ensemble of the ocean surface currents so obtained is used in a particle trajectory model to quantify the spread in the trajectories. It is found that the divergence of trajectories is of the order of a few kilometers over a course of 3 months. This divergence is intercompared between coupled models of different resolutions. This sensitivity of ocean currents to initial and boundary conditions suggests that the assimilation of atmospheric and oceanographic data might be able to improve prediction of oil spills.