Improving short-term forecasts of the Arctic ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled system using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

The MOSAiC Near Real-Time Verification Project (MOSAiC-NRV) is designed to use observations taken during MOSAiC to improve the simulation of coupled processes unique to the Arctic, such as; The vertical representation of cloud and hydrometeors microphysics, low level (mixed-phase) clouds; The representation of the stable boundary layer; Atmosphere-snow interaction and ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupling. Short-term forecasts are used in this project to identify potential errors in the representation of "fast" processes that cause biases in climate model projections of Arctic climate change. The goal of MOSAiC-NRV is to evaluate the skill of fully coupled short-term forecasts during the MOSAiC campaign at the Polarstern location. Multi-model diagnostics focus on process-based evaluation of the coupled system to identify systematic biases that limit the skill of Arctic forecasts. This presentation focuses on the coupled processes that determine the evolution of the surface temperatures and sea ice growth during the winter season (Oct 15 2019-March 15 2020).