Although the quality of weather forecasts in the polar regions is improving, it still lags behind the quality of forecasts in lower latitudes. Arctic regions pose specific challenges related to processes which are historically difficult to model (stable boundary layers, mixed-phase clouds, and atmosphere-snow-ice coupling). Moreover, so far there has been relatively little effort to evaluate processes in weather models using in-situ datasets from the terrestrial Arctic and Antarctic, compared to the mid-latitudes.
The YOPP Site Model Inter-comparison Project (YOPP-SiteMIP) is addressing this gap by producing Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) and Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs), bringing together observations and forecast data at polar meteorological observatories in a format designed to facilitate process-oriented evaluation. This legacy project of the World Meteorological Organization’s Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), is an international effort bringing together forecasters, observationalists and data scientists from multiple institutions. The presentation will outline the initial muti-model results from the project, focussing on identifying and highlighting common causes of forecast error in surface and near surface weather parameters.
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