Extended Abstract (360K)11.1
The long-term evolution of ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere
Wolfgang Steinbrecht, DWD = German Weather Service, Hohenpeissenberg, Germany; and H. Claude and F. Schoenenborn
We use long-term records of ozone and temperature from multiple ground- and space-based
instruments to investigate the long-term evolution of ozone and temperature in the upper
stratosphere since the 1980s. Over the two decades from 1980 to 2000, chlorine induced ozone
depletion and increasing CO2 have resulted in reduced short-wave heating and increased long-
wave cooling. Both anthropogenic influences have been working in the same direction, producing
an observed cooling of the upper stratosphere. Over the last decade, however, chlorine has
started to decrease, and constant or even slightly increasing ozone has been observed, while
CO2 is increasing steadily. Now increased heating due to increasing ozone is competing with
increased cooling expected from continuing CO2 increase. Good comprehensive long-term records
of temperature in the upper stratosphere are scarce, but the available data show little or no
temperature decline over the last decade. This might be expected from the beginning recovery of
ozone, but chemistry climate model simulations indicate that the upper stratospheric cooling
trend from CO2 should prevail. These model predictions are at odds with the current
observational record, albeit with little statistical significance at this time.
At the meeting we will present updated ozone- and temperature records from ground- and space-based
instruments, and will discuss the observed evolution.
Session 11, Stratospheric Ozone Variability
Thursday, 11 June 2009, 1:50 PM-3:30 PM, Pinnacle A
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