Improving Vortex Initialization and Hurricane Forecasting through Ensemble-3DVar Hybrid Data Assimilation

This presentation summarizes our current research results in improving the vortex initialization with both hurricane weather research and forecasting (HWRF) model and an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) model with an ensemble-three dimensional variational hybrid data assimilation system. A series of numerical experiments will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of various data assimilation configurations in improving vortex initialization and numerical prediction of track and intensity of hurricanes. Specifically, results are summarized in the following aspects: 1) the influence of enhanced background error covariance terms; 2) assimilation of TC Vital data and synthetic inner-core observations; 3) assimilation of the inner core tail Doppler radar (TDR) radial velocity observations; 4) assimilation of satellite radiances and satellite-derived data products. Problems and challenges in hurricane vortex initialization will also be discussed based on the research results.