Analysis of Missed Summer Severe Rainfall Forecasts

Despite considerable progress in mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP), the ability to predict summer severe rainfall (SSR) in terms of amount, location, and timing remains very limited due to its association with convective or mesoscale phenomena. In this study, two representative missed SSR events that occurred in the highly populated Great Lakes regions are analyzed in the context of moisture availability, convective instability, and lifting mechanism in order to help identify the possible causes of these events, and improve our SSR forecasts/nowcasts.

Results reveal the following limitations of the Canadian regional NWP model in predicting SSR events: (1) the model-predicted rainfall is phase-shifted to an undesired location that is likely caused by the model initial condition errors; (2) the model is unable to resolve the echo training process due to the weakness of the parameterized convection and/or coarse resolutions. These limitations are related to the ensuing model-predicted features: (1) vertical motion in the areas of SSR occurrence is unfavorable for triggering parameterized convection and grid-scale condensation; (2) convective available potential energy is lacking for initial model spin up and later for elevating latent heating to higher levels through parameterized convection, giving rise to less precipitation; and (3) the conversion of water vapor into cloud water at the upper and middle levels is underpredicted. Recommendations for future improvements are discussed.