Prediction for New Jersey coastal flooding at the Delaware Bay under climate change conditions

With over half of the world population living within 120 km of the ocean coast, potential coastal flooding due to global warming becomes an important issue. Recent studies show that global warming will cause the sea level along the northeastern U.S. coast to rise almost twice as fast as global sea levels during this century, putting New York City and New Jersey at greater risk for catastrophic coastal flooding under hurricanes and winter storms. With these in mind, this study investigates the impact of the medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) projections on sea level rise and storm flood inundation for the New Jersey counties of Cumberland and Cape May. We use the 3D FVCOM coupled with a 2D Godunov model on an unstructured mesh with up to 50 m resolution. Combinations of four different values of relative sea level rise and four weather conditions derived from probability analysis are used to generate sixteen sets of model data. Instead of direct atmospheric forcing, information from water elevation observations during the February 5, 1998 Nor'easter is used to mimic storms and drive the models at the boundaries. Modeling results indicate that for the input variables that were considered, coastal flooding in the region can cause flooding to properties and roads. The results also show that flood depths become significantly larger in some regions than others, in particular near the Maurice River, Dennisville and Goshen. Detailed investigations and analyses will be presented for individual locations of interest.