Modeled patterns of regional sea level rise around Taiwan

Regional sea level rise in the vicinity of Taiwan is numerically investigated using the newly developed parallel free-surface global ocean model (TaIwan Multi-scale Community Ocean Model, TIMCOM). Model results indicate that the pattern of regional sea level rise has a non-uniform distribution in space. The predicted time series of surface elevation is analyzed by linear regression and nonlinear smoother approaches, obtaining the long-term trend of regional sea level rise. Interannual variations play a key role in the seal level pattern of the studied areas. The overall results are consistent with those observed in the previous studies primarily using tide-gauge and satellite altimetry data. The relation between the sea surface height and the upper-water temperature anomaly is established, supporting that thermal expansion of sea water dominates the sea level variation around Taiwan. Finally, the model predicts future sea level changes under different scenarios, which are essential for effective risk assessment. Model predictions and potential threats to Taiwan are discussed.

Keywords: sea level rise, global ocean model, linear regression, nonlinear smoother approach, decadal oscillation